Friday, July 10, 2020

Markets rise on coronavirus treatment hopes

Dow rose 162, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ gave back 20.  The MLP index fell 1 to 122 & the REIT index was even at 343.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were steady.  Oil went up to 40 & gold added 5 to 1809.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil39.84
+0.22+0.6%

GC=FGold   1,806.70
+2.90+0.2%






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Mask-wearing is key to ensuring a faster economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic & subsequent lockdown, Dallas Federal Reserve Pres Robert Kaplan said.  "If we all wore a mask, it would substantially mute the transmission of this disease, and we would grow faster," Kaplan said.  "We would have a lower unemployment rate, we'd grow faster, and we'd be far less likely to slow some of our reopenings. But we've been uneven so far on our mask-wearing."  Daily coronavirus cases in the US have again started to regularly hit record highs, driven by a resurgence in California, Texas & Florida.   Some states have hit pause on their plans to reopen, while others are reimposing restrictions they had previously lifted.  More widespread usage of face masks, which is recommended by the Centers for Disease Control, could be pivotal in aiding the economy's nascent recovery & preventing another devastating shutdown of nonessential businesses.  "If there was one recommendation you'd probably hear from me, while monetary and fiscal policy have a key role to play, the primary economic policy from here is broad mask-wearing and good execution of these health care protocols," Kaplan added.  "If we do that, we'll grow faster."  Kaplan said he still anticipates the economy to shrink by an unprecedented 35% in Q2 but projected it will grow in Q3 & Q4, putting the economy on track to shrink by about 5%  for the year.

Fed prez: US economy would recover from virus crisis if everyone did this


The US reported a daily record 63K new cases of Covid-19, according to Johns Hopkins University.  It's the 2nd time this week the US topped its record for new infections reported in a 24-hour period as outbreaks expand across a number of states, mostly across the American South & West.  California, Florida & Texas reported more than 30K new cases collectively on Tues, accounting for nearly ½ all new cases in the US.  The US has reported 54K new cases on average over the past 7 days, a record high 7-day average, up nearly 17.6% compared with a week ago.  The US 7-day average has hit a new record every day for more than 2 weeks.  White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci has warned that the US is “not in total control” of the coronavirus pandemic & daily new cases could surpass 100K new infections per day if the outbreak continues at its current pace.  “What we are seeing is exponential growth. It went from an average of about 20,000 to 40,000 and 50,000. That’s doubling. If you continue doubling, two times 50 is 100,” Fauci said.  “Any state that is having a serious problem, that state should seriously look at shutting down.”  Cases were growing, on average, by at least 5% in 36 states & DC.  Coronavirus-related hospitalizations are also up, on average, by at least 5% in 25 states.  Some of the rise in total cases is likely due to increased testing.  Nationally, the US has ramped up screening from an average of just over 174K diagnostic tests per day thru Apr to more than 650K tests per day in July.  However, the % of tests coming back positive has also risen, which epidemiologists say is a sign of a virus that is spreading more rapidly.  While new cases have continued to soar, deaths caused by Covid-19 have remained relatively stable & comparatively low.  Health officials have attributed this better treatment strategies & clinical care for Covid-19 patients as well as to the comparatively low average age of people infected with the virus now.  The average age of a Covid-19 patient has dropped by about 15 years compared with the beginning of the outbreak, & younger people have lower fatality rates.

U.S. reports record single-day spike of 63,200 new cases of coronavirus

Personal-computer sales rebounded in the Jun qtr, driven by higher demand from workers & students forced to study and work from home amid the coronavirus  according to preliminary data from 2 industry-research firms.  Global PC shipments rose 11% to 72.3M in the qtr, with the US posting its highest quarterly-shipment volume in more than a decade, according to preliminary data from International Data (IDC).  Meanwhile, Gartner said the qtr's shipments grew 2.8% to 64.8M & pointed to a short-term recovery as vendors restocked channels & mobile-PC demand increased.  Shipments in Q1 were bogged down by production & logistical challenges, despite higher demand from remote work & school orders in response to the pandemic.  Despite some lingering logistics issues early in the Jun qtr, cost & frequency of air & sea freight moved closer to pre-pandemic levels, IDC said.  At the same time, the firm said, PC makers ramped up production, in some cases surpassing previous levels, helping vendors meet the surge in demand.  “What remains to be seen is if this demand and high level of usage continues during a recession and into the post-Covid world since budgets are shrinking while schools and workplaces reopen,” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for IDC's Mobile Device Trackers.  Much of the difference in the data from the data providers comes from how each company defines PCs.  Hardware makers in recent years have increasingly blurred the lines between personal computers & devices such as tablets.  IDC data ranked HP (HPQ) as the #1 vendor, followed by Lenovo, while Gartner data had Lenovo slightly ahead.

PC sales surge, boosted by homebound workers and students


Stocks are back to meandering, staying near 26K & close to its recent trend line.  Investors may be getting use to dreary news on rising new cases for coronavirus.  Cases are up but deaths have not risen in the same fashion.  There remains plenty of controversy about reopening the economy & schools.  And gold stays fairly close to its record highs 9 years ago.

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