Thursday, July 30, 2020

Markets tumble as US economy shrinks in quarter 2

Dow dropped 225 (but well off session lows), decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ went up 44.  The MLP index was off 4 to the 127s & the REIT index fell 2+ to  359.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries continued in demand..  Oil fell 1+ to 40 & gold ended its winning streak, falling 8 to 1943 (more on both below).

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A coronavirus relief agreement in Congress looked illusory as new economic data showed a US economy buckling under the pandemic's weight.  Sen Ron Johnson tried to unanimously pass an extension of the weekly enhanced federal unemployment insurance yesterday that would slash the benefit from $600 to $200 per week & Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer rejected it.  Schumer then attempted to unanimously approve the $3T rescue package House Dems passed in May.  That legislation also failed, leaving Congress no closer to breaking an impasse over how best to boost a health-care system & economy ravaged by the pandemic.  Dem leaders & Trump administration officials left a meeting yesterday saying they had not come close to bridging a gulf in their priorities for an aid package.  As House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is away today, it is unclear when the sides will resume in-person discussions.  Congress is struggling to find common ground on coronavirus relief as statistics show an economy still experiencing damage from an outbreak spreading throughout the country.  Congressional leaders are now tossing blame for the inevitable expiration of the $600 per week enhanced federal unemployment insurance.  The policy ends tomorrow, though states stopped paying out the extra benefit last week — leaving Ms of Americans facing a sudden & sharp drop in income.

Coronavirus relief deal looks elusive in Congress as U.S. economy craters


Secretary of State Mike Pompeo slammed US tech companies for their lack of transparency in regards to the breadth & depth of intellectual property theft the Chinese gov conducts on American industries.  “The idea that anyone in the tech space could not know of what the Chinese Communist Party is attempting to steal and the cyberattacks they are making seems incredulous to me,” Pompeo said before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.  Pompeo's comments come a day after the CEOs of tech giants testified before the House Judiciary subcommittee on antitrust.  When asked by lawmakers if China steals technology from US tech firms, they largely downplayed the notion.  “I can only speculate, it’s patently clear to anyone who is watching that the Chinese are engaged in intense efforts of intellectual property threat, including technology,” Pompeo responded to questions.  US officials have long complained that Chinese intellectual property theft has threatens national security & has cost the economy Bs of $s in revenue & thousands of jobs.  Beijing maintains it does not engage in intellectual property theft.

Pompeo slams U.S. tech firms for downplaying Chinese cyber threat to lawmakers

Kellogg (K) raised its full-year sales & profit forecast on, buoyed by rising demand for its Corn Flakes, Fruit Loops & waffle mixes among consumers stuck at home due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The company reported net sales of $3.47B in the 3 months ended Jun 27, roughly flat from a year ago, due to the sale of its Keebler cookie business last year.  The forecast called for net sales of $3.3B.  The company forecast full-year organic net sales to rise about 5%, ahead of a prior forecast for a 1-2% increase& its adjusted EPS to fall about 1%, compared with previous outlook of a 3% to 4% fall.  The stock fell 31¢.
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/K?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Kellogg raises annual profit forecast as coronavirus boosts demand for Fruit Loops, waffle mixes


Gold prices ended lower, with bullion retreating from a record rally that had seen the precious metal notch 9 consecutive days of gains.  The precious metal found support yesterday following the Federal Reserve signaling it planned to keep the low interest rate environment in place for the foreseeable future as the US economy recovers from COVID-19.  Benchmark federal-funds futures rates stand at a of 0-0.25%.  However, some analysts make the case that gold prices may be entering a period of consolidation following a historic run-up that has been at least partly prompted by the public-health crisis, but also exacerbated by a recent bout of weakness in $ & the low yields being offered by gov debt.  Aug gold fell $11 (0.6%) to settle at $1942 an ounce, after settling at a record yesterday, marking its 9th straight advance, which is its longest win streak since a 10-session climb ended in Jan.  Dec gold, which is now the most-active contract, settled at $1966 an ounce, down $10 (0.5%).

Gold prices suffer first loss in 10 sessions


Oil futures were sharply lower, with US prices settling below $40 a barrel for the first time in 3 weeks, pressured by worries a resurgence in coronavirus cases around the world will cause demand to falter as major oil producers begin relaxing output curbs.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Sep dropped $1.35 (3.3%) to settle at $39.92 a barrel.  That was the first settlement below $40 & lowest front-month contract finish in 3 weeks.  Sep Brent crude, which expires at the end of tomorrow's session, fell 81¢ (1.9%) at $42.94.  The number of COVID-19 cases around the world climbed above 17M, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, & the death toll rose to 668K.  The US case tally climbed to 4.4K & the death toll rose to 152K, after crossing 150K late yesterday.  California & Florida posted single-day record death numbers yesterday & California added more than 12K.  Meanwhile, OPEC & its allies (OPEC+) are due in Aug to boost output by around 2M barrels a day as they relax production curbs put in place earlier this year.

U.S. oil prices drop below $40 on fears rising coronavirus cases will crimp demand

Getting legislation passed in DC will not be easy.  Those guys take a very long break in Aug after doing very little in recent months.  Another rescue package for the economy looks to be very far away & the fight against the virus in southern states is not going well.  The drop in the closing price for the expiring contract of gold means little because the new closing contract is already at 1966.  Gold remains in heavy demand, not a good sign for stocks.

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