Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Markets advance as Fed keeps rates unchanged

Dow rose 160, advancers over decliners 4-1 & NAZ jumped up 140.  The MLP index added 4+ to the 131s & the REIT index remained strong, up 6 to the 361s.  Junk bond funds continued in demand & Treasuries crawled higher.  Oil went into the 41s & gold climbed 17 to 1961 for another record (more on both below).

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Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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The Federal Reserve signaled that it would continue taking aggressive action to support the US economy during the coronavirus pandemic as a spike in cases & renewed restrictions on certain businesses threaten to derail the nation's gradual recovery.  The central bank, as widely expected, held the benchmark federal fund rate at 0-0.25%, where it has been since mid-Mar.  The Fed reiterated previous guidance that rates will remain near-zero "until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals."  Previous guidance from the Fed's Jun meeting shows that policymakers expect interest rates to remain near zero thru 2022.  Policymakers also pledged to maintain the central bank's purchases of Treasury & mortgage bonds each month.  Over the past four months, the Fed has injected nearly $2.8T into the economy, an unprecedented amount, & its balance sheet has surged to nearly $7T.  The Fed noted the economy has strengthened since Mar & Apr, when American life came to a grinding halt to mitigate the spread of COVID-19.  But it warned the virus will continue to dictate the speed of the nation's turnaround.  “The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term,” the policymakers said.  Chairman Jerome Powell previously warned a complete recovery hinges on control of the virus.  "Until the public is confident that the disease is contained, a full recovery is unlikely," he said in Jun while testifying before lawmakers.  The Fed has already taken a range of extraordinary actions to support the economy, including slashing interest rates to near-zero in Mar, purchasing an unlimited amount of Treasury debt (a practice known as quantitative easing) & launching 9 lending facilities to ensure that credit flows to businesses & banks.  Yesterday, the central bank said it would extend 7 of those programs, which were previously set to expire at the end of Sep, thru the end of the year. 

Fed signals ongoing aggressive action to support US economy


Reps & Dems appeared far from striking a coronavirus relief deal as Ms of Americans wait to see whether Congress will renew financial lifelines during an ongoing economic crisis.  As negotiators cite little progress in talks & congressional leaders snipe at one another, the Trump administration again raised the prospect of a short-term plan to address only enhanced unemployment insurance & a federal eviction moratorium while the sides hash out a broader bill.  Dems have repeatedly rejected a temporary fix.  “As of now, we’re very far apart,” Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, the White House's chief negotiator, said.   They added that Pres Trump would support approving short-term legislation to allow more time for talks if the parties fail to strike an agreement before Fri.  Mnuchin & White House chief of staff Mark Meadows will meet with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi & Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, an aide said.  Comments from congressional leaders & White House officials portrayed a messy, politically charged process that appears unlikely to lead to a quick breakthrough to combat an economic & health-care calamity.  As roughly 30M people still receive some form of unemployment insurance, states have stopped paying out the extra $600 weekly federal benefit Congress approved earlier this year.  A federal eviction moratorium also expired last week.

GOP and Democrats are far apart on coronavirus relief bill as talks continue

Gold futures tallied a 9th gain in a row to settle at another record, then moved even higher after the FOMC reiterated plans to keep interest rates near zero until the economy sees further improvement.  The Fed noted economic activity & jobs “have picked up somewhat in recent months” while pledging again to use its full range of tools to support further improvement.  Against this backdrop, gold for Aug was at $1958 an ounce in electronic trading shortly after the Fed statement.  It posted a gain of $8 (0.5%) to settle at a record of $1953 an ounce. 

Gold logs record close, up a ninth straight session, then climbs after Fed policy statement

Oil futures ended higher after gov data showed a more-than-10M barrel weekly decline in US crude — the largest so far this year.  The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude inventories fell by 10.6M barrels last week, the largest weekly decline since the 11.5M barrel fall reported for the week ended Dec 27.  The latest fall compared with a forecast for a decline of 1.2M barrels.  The American Petroleum Institute yesterday reported a decrease of 6.8M barrels.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Sep rose 23¢ (0.6%) to settle at $41.27 a barrel.  It was trading at $41.32 just ahead of the EIA supply data.  Sep Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed 53¢ (1.2%) to close at $43.75 a barrel.  The EIA data also showed crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla, storage hub edged up by 1.3M barrels for the week, but total oil production was unchanged at 11.1M barrels per day.

Oil prices get a lift as EIA reports the biggest weekly U.S. crude supply decline of the year

The Fed announcement provided no drama but there is plenty going on in DC as those guys try to figure out how to spend more money.  Nothing will get done until the last minute, at the earliest.  Tomorrow AM the first estimate for Q2 GDP data will be released & it will be dreary.  Then comes the jobless claims report which is not expected to provide encouragement for investors. 

Dow Jones Industrials








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