Thursday, July 2, 2020

Markets jump on a better than expected jobs report

Dow climbed 179 (but off highs at the opening), advancers over decliners 3-1 & NAZ gained 76 to another record.   The MLP index was off fractionally in the 131s & the REIT index fell 2+ to 352.  Junk bond funds crawled higher &Treasuries were purchased.  Oil rose in the 39s & gold went up 7 to 1787.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil40.55
+0.73+1.8%

GC=FGold   1,784.60
+4.70+0.3%






3 Stocks You Should Own Right Now - Click Here!


The US unemployment rate dropped to 11.1% in Jun as businesses shuttered by the coronavirus pandemic earlier this year rehired Ms of idled workers.  The Labor Dept report was released today because of tomorrow's holiday, said that employers added 4.8M jobs in Jun — the biggest increase on record.  The forecast expected the report, to show that unemployment dropped to 12.3% &  that employers added 3M jobs.  May's figure was revised up by 130K for the addition of 2.7M jobs last month.  Still, the nation's jobless rate is up 7.6 percentage points compared to the start of the year, when it sat at a ½-century low.  There are 12M more out-of-work Americans than compared to Feb.  Over the course of the past month, every state has started to navigate reopening their economies.  But the unemployment level, which is still at the highest level in decades, is expected to remain elevated as social distancing guidelines remain in place, particularly as states fight a resurgence in COVID-19 cases.  New cases surpassed 50K for the first time this week, reaching a single-day record.  Arizona, Florida, Texas & California are among the states that have seen a spike in infections.  If the outbreak intensifies, forcing businesses to shut down again, economists the consequences could be dire.  Because the report was conducted in mid-Jun, it does not capture the recent closures in some states that have seen a spike in cases.  Disney (DIS), a Dow stock, postponed the scheduled Jul reopening of its California parks, Apple (AAPL), a Dow & NAZ stock. re-closed 32 stores in 5 states, & Macy's (M) announced that it would cut 3900 corp jobs -- roughly 3% of its total workforce.  Texas Gov Greg Abbott hit pause Thurs on the state's reopening plans & on Fri, he ordered all bars in the state to close & scaled back restaurant capacity by 50%.  Leisure & hospitality once again accounted for the biggest bulk of jobs created last month, with more than 2M new positions added.  About 1.5M of those jobs were added by food services & drinking places — one of the sectors hit hardest by the pandemic as states ordered restaurants & bars to close & directed Americans to stay at home — while the accomodation sector added about 238K.  Retail saw a gain of 740K & manufacturing increased by 356K.  Education & health services rose 568K.  But state govs, which face significant budget shortfalls as a result of the virus-induced recession, lost 25K jobs.

Economy adds record-breaking 4.8M jobs in June as unemployment rate falls


The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time rose more than expected last week as a resurgent coronavirus added pressure to the US economy.  The Labor Dept said  that initial jobless claims rose by 1.4M.  The forecast was for a rise of 1.38M.  This marked the 15th straight week in which initial claims remained above 1M.  The data also showed the number of continuing claims — the number of people receiving unemployment benefits for consecutive weeks — rose to 19.3M, an increase of about 59K. 

Weekly jobless claims rise more than expected in final week of June

California, Michigan & New York City became the latest areas yesterday to pause some aspects of their reopening efforts as new cases spike across the country.  Amid the surge, Pres Trump said he’s “all for masks,” but he doesn't think the US needs a national mandate for people to wear them during the pandemic.  The latest news on the coronavirus a outbreak:
  • Global cases:    More than 10.7M
  • Global deaths:   At least      517K
  • US cases:          More than  2.7M
  • US deaths:         At least      128K
The US coronavirus outbreak will come to an end by Jan “one way or the other,” thanks to a vaccine or because enough people will have already been infected & have some immunity to it, former Food & Drug Administration Commissioner Dr Scott Gottlieb said.  “Either we’ll get to a vaccine or we’ll just have spread enough it’s just going to stop spreading efficiently, so we have a short period of time to get through,” Gottlieb added.  “We should do everything we can to preserve what we want of our way of life over that time period to just get through it.”  Gottlieb's hopes for an effective vaccine or for the US population to achieve herd immunity to curb the outbreak both depend on what scientists learn about the role of antibodies.  Unfortunately, there/s still no clear evidence that antibodies give people any protection against being reinfected.

Coronavirus live updates: U.S. reports a record 50,000 new cases in a day

The Dow in early trading surged, but dropped 300 from the peak after the report of a daily record of 50K for new virus cases.  It is not going away without a fight & that will be a drag on the economic recovery.  Also, unemployment claims remain at troubling levels.  In the booming economy they were about 0.2M.  Last week there were still above 1M!  The bulls may have difficulty maintaining investor optimism.  The Dow back to where it was a month ago.

Dow Jones Industrials








No comments: