Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Markets pare gains on growing tensions with China

Dow rose 227 (below session highs), advancers over decliners 5-1 & NAZ added 61.  The MLP index gained a big 6+ to the 128s & the REIT index was up 3 to the 345s.  Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries were weak today.  Oil went up to 41 & gold was about even at 1813 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Goldman Sachs (GS), a Dow stock, shattered expectations amid record-breaking performance from its investment bank & the strongest qtr for bond trading in 9 years.  The company reported  EPS uf $6.26, outpacing the $3.78 that was expected.  Revenue jumped 41% from a year ago to $13.3B, the 2nd-highest quarterly total on record, outpacing the consensus estimate of $9.75B.  The firm's bond-trading desk raked in $4.24B, while its equity trading generated $2.94B, an 11-year high.  The investment banking division, which underwrites stock & bond offerings in addition to providing financial advice on mergers and acquisitions, brought in a record $2.66B of revenue.  “Our strong financial performance across our client franchises demonstrates the inherent benefits of our diversified business model,” CEO David Solomon said.  “While the economic outlook remains uncertain, I am confident that we will continue to be the firm of choice for clients around the world who are looking to reshape their businesses and rebuild a more resilient economy..”  The company set aside $1.59B for disruptions caused by COVID-19, bringing the annual total allowance for credit losses to $4.39B.  The stock rose 2.97.
If you would like to learn more about GS, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/GS?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Goldman Sachs rides investment banking, trading to big earnings beat


Pres Trump signed a bill and exec order that ends the special treatment of Hong Kong & sanctions Chinese officials.  This comes after Beijing passed a national security law that many US officials say amounts to an authoritarian takeover of Hong Kong.  "Hong Kong will now be treated the same as mainland China. No special privileges, no special economic treatment, and no export of sensitive technologies," Trump said.  "In addition to that, as you know, we're placing massive tariffs and have placed very large tariffs on China."  The Hong Kong Autonomy Act, which passed unanimously thru Congress earlier this month, will allow the Trump administration to slap sanctions on “foreign individuals and entities that materially contribute to China's failure to preserve Hong Kong's autonomy.”  The relationship between mainland China & Hong Kong has existed under a “One country, two systems” arrangement since the British handed control of the island back to Beijing in 1997.  The US has given special treatment to Hong Kong since then, but that preferential treatment has always depended on Beijing abiding by this system.  American officials contend that the national security law passed by China last month essentially ends Hong Kong’s autonomy.  “The Chinese Communist Party’s destruction of free Hong Kong continues,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo< said last week.  ”With the ink barely dry on the repressive National Security Law, local authorities – in an Orwellian move – have now established a central government national security office, started removing books critical of the CCP from library shelves, banned political slogans, and are now requiring schools to enforce censorship."  Hong Kong has had an extremely open & free economy for decades, which has led to it to being a financial capital of the world. It was ranked number one on the Heritage Foundation’s “Index of Economic Freedom for 25 years before being passed by Singapore this year.  That economic freedom could change now that Beijing has more control over Hong Kong.

Trump ends special treatment for Hong Kong, rips Biden for weakness on China


Economic activity increased in almost all districts, but remained well below where it was prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report.  Business contacts remain highly uncertain about the outlook for the US economy, as it was unclear how long the crisis would last.  While employment increased, there was also talk about new layoffs across the US.  And firms that had retained workers with the help of the gov's Paycheck Protection Program said the strength of the economy would determine whether they can avoid layoffs.  Consumer spending was led by a rebound in vehicle sales and home improvement.  Manufacturing moved up but from a very low level but.demand for services was very weak. The Beige Book was more positive than the prior report in May but there was no sense that the economy is out of the woods.

Fed’s Beige Book sees increase in economic activity but nothing near pre-pandemic levels

Gold posted a gain, with the $-denominated metal finding some support from weakness in the $, but strength in global stock markets on optimism surrounding a coronavirus vaccine kept a cap on the price rise.  Better-than-expected quarterly results from US corps also helped to diminish the traditional haven appeal for bullion.  Bullish commodity investors make the case that gold's uptrend remains intact but warn that its recent run-up above the psychologically important $1800-an-ounce level may be giving way to a pause.  Gold for Aug tacked on pennies to settle at $1813 an ounce, after declining less a smidgen yesterday, bouncing off a low that had taken beneath the $1800 threshold.  The flow of sanguine news for the equities market suggests a quick recovery from the economic damage wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic & has lessened the need for safe haven precious metals.  Thus far, gold has been driven to around its highest level since 2011 given the uncertainties about the outlook for businesses across the world.

Gold edges up on dollar weakness, but strength in the stock market on vaccine hopes caps gain

Oil futures climbed to mark their highest settlement in more than 4 months, buoyed by the biggest weekly decline in US crude supplies so far this year, even as an OPEC+ committee reached an agreement to taper record production cuts starting next month.  At the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting today, OPEC & allied producers (OPEC+) said they will ease record production cuts of 9.7M barrels per day to 7.7M barrels per day starting in Aug thru the end of the year amid signs of improvement in the oil market.  Participants in the deal who were unable to fully comply with the reductions in May & Jun, which include Iraq, will compensate for the added output.  Including that compensation, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said actual cuts will be at roughly 8.1M to as much as 8.34M barrels per day.  An OPEC+ document, however, showed that 13 countries pumped above their quotas in the first 2 months of the deal by a combined 840K barrels per day.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Aug rose 91¢ (2.3%) to settle at $41.20 a barrel.  Sep Brent crude, the global benchmark, ended 89¢ (2.2%) higher at $43.79 a barrel.  Both WTI & Brent crude marked the highest front-month contract settlements since Mar 6.  Yesterday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) nreported that domestic crude inventories fell by 7.5M barrels last week.  That compared with a forecast for a decline of 2.1M barrels.  The American Petroleum Institute on Tues reported a drop of 8.3 million barrels.  The EIA data also showed crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., storage hub edged up by about 900K barrels for the week.

Oil prices at 4-month high as U.S. crude supply posts biggest decline of the year and OPEC+ tapers output cuts

US-China relations are getting touchy, highlighted by the changing status of Hong Kong.  That got the attention of traders.  There was selling at midday, but buying in the last hour returned most of the early gains.  However taming the virus in the US is a biggest nagging problem & it does not want to go away.  The Dow continues to lumber along in the 26Ks.. 

Dow Jones Industrials








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