Friday, July 17, 2020

Markets edge lower with investors tracking more stimulus funding

Dow fell 47, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ went up 8.  The MLP index was fractionally higher in the 128s & the REIT index rose 2+ to 344.  Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries were a tad lower.  Oil slid lower while holding above 40 & gold gained 12 to 1812.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil40.46
 -0.29-0.7%

GC=FGold   1,808.20
+7.90+0.4%






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The US reported 77K new cases of the coronavirus, shattering its previous record single-day spike in new cases by nearly 10K, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.  The previous record of 68K new cases was reported last Fri.  The US has reported more than 65K new cases on average over the past 7 days, up nearly 22% compared with a week ago.  New cases are rising in nearly every state.  49 states & the DC all reported that the 7-day average of daily new cases rose by more than 5% yesterday compared with a week ago.  California, Florida & Texas accounted for more than ½ of all new cases in the country, with more than 38K new cases combined.  Hospitalizations also appear to be growing in at least 32 states, based on a 7-day average.  Covid-19 deaths, which tend to lag new cases & hospitalizations, are on the rise across the US as well. Florida reported 156 new deaths yesterday & Texas reported 151 coronavirus-related deaths.  Both states were reporting around 30 coronavirus deaths a day a month ago.  The country processed 831K tests yesterday, the most tests ever conducted in a single day. The US has processed an average of more than 691K tests per day between Jul 1-16, up from a daily average of just over 174K diagnostic tests processed nationally per day thru Apr.  “Think of this, if we didn’t do testing, instead of testing over 40 million people, if we did half the testing we would have half the cases,” the pres said.  “If we did another, you cut that in half, we would have, yet again, half of that. But the headlines are always testing.”

U.S. reports 77,200 new cases, shattering one-day record


EU leaders acknowledged they are about as far apart from reaching a deal on an unprecedented €1.85T ($2.1T ) EU budget & virus recovery fund as the seating distance imposed upon them for health reasons at their summit center.  “The differences are still very, very big and so I can’t predict whether we will achieve a result this time,” said German Chancellor Angela Merkel.  “So I expect very, very difficult negotiations.”  The challenges facing the 27 EU leaders, some of whom arrived masked, some unmasked, are formidable.  The bloc is suffering through the worst recession in its history & member states are fighting over who should pay the most to help other countries & which nations should get the most to turn around their battered economies.  As the summit got underway all leaders were wearing masks.  The usual hugs, handshakes & kisses were replaced by friendly nods & elbow bumps.  The jovial atmosphere was not expected to last long at what will likely be one of the most brutal & bruising summits of recent times.  What is slated as a 2-day meeting could go even longer, if necessary, to bridge the differences between leaders.  French Pres Emmanuel Macron led the early negotiations, arriving yesterday & using the the pre-summit hours to meet with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, a stringent budget hardliner & considered one of the biggest obstacles to reaching a deal at the 2-day meeting.  “I am not optimistic, but you never know. Nobody wants another meeting,” said Rutte.  Macron underscored the importance of the challenge.  “The coming hours will be absolutely decisive,” he said.  “It is our project Europe that is at stake.”  The urgency is such that the leaders have ended a string of coronavirus-enforced videoconference summits & are meeting in person for the first time since the pandemic began its devastating sweep around the globe.

European Union leaders say they are far apart on COVID-19 bailout deal


The fresh surge in coronavirus cases sapped the confidence of Americans in early Jul, pointing to a potentially slower economic recovery from the pandemic or even a longer recession, according to a closely followed survey of consumer sentiment.  The early reading of the consumer-sentiment survey in Jul fell to 73.2 from 78.1 last month, the University of Michigan said.  Final results for Jul will be released in 2 weeks.  The index has fallen close to a pandemic low, erasing almost all the gains in the prior 2 months.  The reopening of the US economy helped buoy spirits in May & early Jun, but the recent rise in cases could be a big setback.  California this week shut down large parts of its economy again.  An index that measures how consumers feel about the economy right now slid to 84.2 from 87.1.  Another part of the survey that looks 6 months ahead slipped to 66.2 from 72.3.  That’s just slightly above Apr's 65.9 reading during the height of the pandemic.  “Unfortunately, declines are more likely in the months ahead as the coronavirus spreads and causes continued economic harm, social disruptions, and permanent scarring,” said Richard Curtin, the chief economist of the sentiment survey.  The influx of new coronavirus cases in California, Texas, Florida & other states threatens to derail a recovery and rob the economy of the momentum it built up in May & Jun as the US loosened restrictions on businesses & consumers.  The expiration of extra federal jobless benefits at the end of Jul may also be weighing on the minds of consumers.  Congress is likely approve more relief measures, but a temporary $600-a-week unemployment benefit might be reduced.  While the reopening of New York, New Jersey & other hard-hit states where the virus is slowing will help limit the damage, it may not be enough to prevent the economy from sinking back into a malaise.  The virus has to be brought under control, economists says, before a sustained recovery can take place.

U.S. consumer mood darkens in July amid coronavirus spikes in numerous states


Hopes are high for another rescue package from the gov.  But the Reps & Dems are deeply divided on whether one is needed, & if needed how much money should be thrown out to help the economy.  The EU is also struggling with what to do, if anything.  The Dow is up 900 in Jul but also around where it was in early Jun when the rise in new virus cases was widely reported.

Dow Jones Industrials








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