Monday, July 20, 2020

Mixed markets ahead of a big week for corporate earnings

Dow rose 8, decliners over advancers 5-4 but NAZ surged 263 to a new record.  The MLP index was even in the 127s & the REIT index fell 3+ to the 342s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasures crawled higher in price.  Oil was stable above 40 & gold added 8 to 1818 (more on both below).

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Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin provided some details regarding the federal gov's next coronavirus stimulus package, noting that the starting point for how much money will go into it is $1T.  Speaking  in the Oval Office, Mnuchin said that “the focus is kids and jobs,” & that the goal is to have it in place by the end of this month.  “We’re focused on starting with another trillion dollars, we think that will make a big impact,” Mnuchin added.  In addition to children and jobs, Mnuchin said another focus is developing a vaccine for COVID-19, with the goal of having one ready for emergency use “by the end of the year.”  The Treasury secretary said that lawmakers are aiming to pass the new legislation before the end of Jul, when the current “enhanced unemployment insurance” expires.  Mnuchin noted that while the new package will continue to provide robust unemployment benefits, it will correct what some see as an issue with the current package: it paid some workers more than what they made on the job so they were not incentivized to return to work.  He also said that the new package should include tax credits for employers to incentivize them to bring workers back, as well as money for states for schools that can reopen safely.  Trump was asked how important a payroll tax cut would be for the new legislation, to which he said that while it is just one of 10 different elements that are being discussed for the package, it is "very important" because it would incentivize companies to bring people back to work.  Another main theme of the package is protecting sma;l businesses from coronavirus-related lawsuits.  “We want to make sure that frivolous lawsuits don’t prevent schools, universities, and businesses from reopening,” Mnuchin said.

Mnuchin: leaders are 'starting with another trillion dollars' for next stimulus bill


The number of cases of the coronavirus illness world-wide rose above 14.5M & the US case tally rose to 3.77M & its death toll topped 140K as new infections continued to surge in the South & West.  There was positive news from 2 separate trials of vaccine candidates, both of which triggered immune responses.  Experts cautioned that the data is preliminary & more evidence from bigger trials is needed.  Outside the US, more countries are adopting mandatory face-masks, including France, where it is required in all indoor spaces & the UK where it will be required from Fri.  Yesterday, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oregon & South Carolina set new one-day records for new infections.  Florida, the new US hot spot, is running out of intensive-care unit beds.  Miami-Dade Country, the Florida epicenter, now according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University, & the death toll has climbed 606K.  At least 8.1M people have recovered.  The US has 3.77M cases, or about a ¼ of the global total & 140K deaths.  53 states & territories have seen cases climb for the last 14 days.

Coronavirus update: Global case tally tops 14.5 million as U.S. death toll climbs above 140,000 with new infections still rising

Gold ended higher for a 2nd straight session, with it finding support as the rise in global COVID-19 cases threatened economic recovery, raising expectations for additional fiscal stimulus measures.  Gold for Aug rose $7 (0.4%) to settle at $1817 an ounce, the highest most-active contract settlement since Jul 8, when prices above $1820 marked the highest level since Sep 2011.  A hard-fought summit meeting of EU leaders in Brussels was reportedly near agreement on a huge spending program, including a €750B rescue fund after a disagreement over the breakdown between grants & loans to debt-strapped govs.  Meanwhile, US lawmakers were set to begin talks over an additional coronavirus aid bill.

Gold ends higher for a second session


Oil futures held ground above the $40-a-barrel mark, as positive trial results for a coronavirus vaccine help to offset energy-demand concerns tied to the rise in global cases of COVID-19 above 14.5M.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Aug was up 2¢ at $40.61 a barrel after tapping a low of $39.83.  Prices ended last week also slightly higher.  The Aug contract expires at the end of tomorrow's trading session.  Sep Brent crude climbed by 3¢ at $43.17 a barrel, after the global benchmark was off a tad on Fri.  Commodity traders were also watching efforts to roll out stimulus measures in Europe & the US to help mitigate the negative effects of the viral outbreak.  EU leaders appeared close to striking a compromise on a recovery package for the trade bloc, while US lawmakers were set to discuss additional aid to tackle the public-health crisis.

Oil holds above $40 after positive trial results for a coronavirus vaccine


In an unusually chaotic day of news, the markets held up fairly well.  The Dow was in the red early on, but buyers gave it a positive finish at the finish even though there were a few more decliners than advancers.  Techs roared ahead & commodities did well   Gold continued to be strong & silver went over 20, not seen since 2016.  While the increase in virus cases is worrisome, the number of deaths has not risen.  Buyers today may have been encouraged by talk of another stimulus bill.  In addition, talk about progress on a number of vaccines sounds good.

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