Monday, July 13, 2020

Markets climb higher on renewed hope for coronavirus vaccine

Dow jumped 443, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ soared 198 to another record.  The MLP index did little at 124 & the REIT index was flattish in the 344s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries drifted lower in price.  Oil was flat. holding above 40, & gold rose 9 to 1811.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil40.25
 -0.30-0.7%

GC=FGold   1,811.60
+9.70+0.5%






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An alliance of crude producers led by Saudi Arabia is pushing OPEC & its allies to increase oil production starting in Aug, officials in the group said, amid signs that demand is returning to normal levels following coronaviru-related lockdowns.  Key members of OPEC & its Russia-led allies are set to meet via web conference Wed to debate the group's current & future production.  In Apr, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil expoerter, led a push that saw the 23-producer group cut its collective output by 9.7M barrels a day, as the pandemic led to a collapse of oil demand.  Now Saudi Arabia & most participants in the coalition support a loosening of the curbs, the delegates said.  Under a Saudi proposal, OPEC Plus coalition would relax its cuts.  "If OPEC clings to restraining production to keep up prices, I think it's suicidal," said a person familiar with the Saudis's thinking. "There's going to be a scramble for market share, and the trick is how the low cost producers assert themselves without crashing the oil price."urrent curbs by 2 million barrels a day to 7.7 million barrels a day, the delegates said.

OPEC, allies set to ease oil cuts, seeing pandemic recovery


PepsiCo's (PEP), a Dividend Aristocrat, Q2 revenue slipped as consumers stocked up on snacks & bought fewer beverages amid the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The beverage & snack maker saw sales slump 3.1%  versus a year ago to $15.95B, outpacing the $15.38B that was expected.  Organic revenue, which accounts for foreign exchange & acquisitions, was down 0.3%.  Rrevenue slipped as consumers stocked up on snacks & bought fewer beverages amid the COVID-19 lockdowns.  EPS was $1.32 versus a forecast for $1.25.  The company previously suspended its outlook due to uncertainties caused by COVID-19.  The stock rose 3.14.
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PepsiCo beverage sales slide amid coronavirus lockdowns


The IMF revised its growth forecasts for the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) downward again amid an “unusually high level of uncertainty,” according to its latest regional economic report.  It now expects MENA economies to contract 5.7% in 2020.  In Apr, it predicted that the region would shrink 3.3% for the year.  “The unusually high level of uncertainty regarding the length of the pandemic and its impact on firm closures, the resulting downside risks (including social unrest and political instability), and potential renewed volatility in global oil markets dominate the outlook,” the report said.  Jihad Azour, director of the IMF's MENA dept, said the region experienced “twin shocks” with the coronavirus pandemic & depressed oil prices.  “Managing this crisis had a big impact and a toll on the economy and this is why we had to revise our growth rates downward this year,” he added.  “I would say (the downgrade is) in line with most of the countries in the world, but in our part of the world, with the diversity of the economies and the linkages that exist between oil exporting and oil importing, this is going to be a challenge going forward,” he said.  The IMF also lowered its expectations for the global economy last month, & now sees a contraction of 4.9% in global gross domestic product in 2020. Within the region, oil exporters are projected to suffer more than importers.  GDP growth for MENA, Afghanistan & Pakistan oil exporters is expected to fall to negative 7.3%, compared to a 1.1% contraction for oil importers.  That reflects the “double whammy” from oil price fluctuations & Covid-19 lockdowns.  For oil importers, the benefits from lower oil prices are “mostly being offset by hampered trade, tourism, & remittances” as well as tighter global financial conditions & spillovers on domestic credit markets, the IMF added.  It also said growth revisions appeared to be linked to lockdowns & mobility.  Countries including Saudi Arabia & the UAE, which had more stringent movement restrictions, saw greater GDP revisions.

IMF slashes growth forecasts in the Middle East amid ‘high level of uncertainty’

Investors are hanging their hopes once again on a new vaccine to knock out the virus, even though it could be months before it sees the light of day.  Meanwhile, NAZ (powered by the sexy tech stocks) is up 2K YTD setting many new records & safe have gold is close to its record levels set 9 years ago.  That's an unusual pairing.

Dow Jones Industrials








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