Thursday, July 23, 2020

Markets tumble while golld surges to a new record

Dow dropped 353 (buying at the close trimmed losses), decliners ahead of advancers 4-3 & NAZ sank a big 244.  The MLP index fell 1 to 131 & the REIT index was off 2 to the 346s.  Junk bond funds were sold along with stocks & Treasuries continued in demand.  Oil fell in the 41s & gold jumped 26 to 1885, a new record.  More on both below.

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Ford (F) & Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) are hiring temp workers & General Motors (GM) is restructuring shifts at an assembly plant in Missouri as the auto industry battles to keep factories running amid high absenteeism rates.  So many employees are missing work that it’s causing issues on production lines at plants in states such as Michigan, Missouri & Kentucky where Covid-19 cases are surging.  It's not just employees who are sick with the coronavirus.  Many employees on sick leave are perfectly healthy, but they’ve been exposed to the virus & are missing work because they have to self-quarantine for 14 days.  Another full or partial shutdown of plants would be devastating to the industry as automakers try to restock dealer lots and recoup some of their losses following a roughly 8-week shutdown from Mar to mid-May.  “It’s incredibly damaging to the economy and to the industry and to the companies to shut down again,” said Kristin Dziczek, VP of Industry, Labor & Economics at the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan.  US-based automakers, including Tesla (TSLA), are trying to keep plants running as smoothly as possible & address worker concerns about the virus spreading in the plants & their surrounding areas.

The coronavirus threatens auto industry recovery as cases rise and more employees miss work


Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin says that a stable $ is the goal of the Trump administration, while, separately, noting that some froth was percolating in the stock market that has surged since its coronavirus lows seen in late Mar.  Mnuchin noted the nearly unceasing climb in benchmark stock indices even as the economy continues to reel from the COVID-19 pandemic. “We want a stable dollar,” Mnuchin said.  “The dollar reflects lots of money coming back into the United States… it is the reserve currency of the world and we’re going to protect that,” he added.  His comments come as Senate Reps reached a deal with the White House to provide additional fiscal for individuals & businesses still hurting from the measures to curtail the spread of the pandemic.  The Senate Rep proposal for $1T in funds will serve as a basis for negotiations with Dems as the $600 weekly unemployment benefit top up assistance expires at the end of the month.  Mnuchin said that the Rep coronavirus relief plan will extend enhanced unemployment insurance “based on approximately 70% wage replacement.”  He added that there would be no payroll tax cut in the Senate Rep's proposal.

‘We want a stable dollar,’ says U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: ‘It is the reserve currency of the world and we’re going to protect that’

Hershey (HSY) said it had EPS of $1.29, in Q2, down from $1.48 in the year-earlier period.  Adjusted EPS came to $1.31, ahead of the $1.12 consensus.  The chocolate maker's sales fell to $1.71B from $1.77B, below the $1.74B consensus.  "The impact of recent spikes in coronavirus cases on consumer mobility, retail operations, government regulations, and the macroeconomic environment, however, remains unclear," the company said.  "As a result, the company is not providing new fiscal 2020 guidance at this time."  The company expects sales to pick up in H2, due to momentum exiting Q2.  In North America, it expects elevated at-home consumption & the replenishment of retailer & distributor inventory levels to boost sales.  Its intl segment will continue to be pressured by less duty-free sales given current travel trends, gov & macro trends.  The stock rose 7.88 (6%).
If you would like to learn more about HSY, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/HSY?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Hershey profit beats estimates as sales fall short

The gold market saw a lot of excitement, with its climb over the last 5 sessions in a row ultimately lifting prices into record territory.  Aug gold rose $24 (1.3%) to settle at $1890 an ounce after trading as high as $1897.  The contract ended just short of the most-active contract settlement record of $1891 from Aug 22, 2011, based on records going back to 1984.  The record most-active intraday level stands at $1923 an ounce from Sep 6, 2011.  However, the front-month Jul gold contract, which trades on significantly lower volume, settled at $1889, up $25 (1.3%) for the session.  That's a record for the front-month contract.

Gold shatters ‘summer doldrums’ as it climbs to record territory

Oil futures settled lower, extending a decline seen the previous session after data showed an unexpected rise in US crude inventories, as alarming growth in the number of US cases of coronavirus point to the potential for further business shutdowns, dulling the prospects for energy demand.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Sep fell 83¢ (2%) to settle at $41.07 a barrel, while Sep Brent crude lost 98¢ (2.2%) at $43.31 a barrel.  Crude prices finished slightly lower yesterday, pulling back a day after settling at their highest since Mar, pressured by an unexpected weekly climb in US crude stockpiles. The EIA reported yesterday that US crude inventories rose by 4.9M barrels last week & that compared with  forecast for a decline of 1.9M barrels. 

Oil settles lower as worries remain over rising U.S. inventories and coronavirus cases

The jobless claims report was depressing for investors.  That reduced hopes for a strong economic recovery.  Coronavirus does not want to go away & keeps fighting back on efforts to defeat it.  Numerous vaccines are being tested to help the economy bounce back.  The outcome for a stimulus bill by Congress is unclear.  Increased tensions with China brought selling in tech shares on NAZ.  Growing uncertainty raises demand for gold & it can be expected to set new records going forward.

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