Thursday, July 2, 2020

Markets held on to gains after the June jobs report

Dow rose 92 (after selling in the PM), advancers over decliners about 2-1 & NAZ climbed 53 to a new record close.  The MLP index fell 1 to 131 & the REIT index was even in the 345s.  Junk bond funds continued higher & Treasuries went up in price.  Oil climbed over 40 & gold  gained 7 to 1787 (more on both below).

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McDonald's (MCD), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, is pausing its US reopening plans for 21 days as coronavirus cases spike across the country.  States like Michigan, Colorado & Florida have been responding to the recent surge by delaying or rolling back efforts to reopen their economies.  About 2200 of its US dining rooms are currently open, which is roughly 15% of its total US footprint.  Franchisees who have already reopened dining rooms & are not facing any rollbacks from local officials can decide if they want to keep them open.  “To be clear: owner/operators will make the final decision in these situations,” Joe Erlinger, head of MCD's US division, & Mark Salebra, chair of the National Franchisee Leadership Alliance, wrote in a note to franchisees.  The 2 men also emphasized that franchisees should continue to be disciplined about safety measures, including wearing masks properly & adhering to wellness and temperature check procedures.  “This surge shows nobody is exempt from this virus – even places that previously had very few cases,” they wrote.  “Moving forward, we will continue to monitor the situation and adjust as needed to protect the safety of our employees and customers.”  The stock fell 1.13.
If you would like to learn more about MCD, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MCD?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

McDonald’s is halting its U.S. reopening plans as coronavirus cases spike

China's gov & pro-Beijing activists in Hong Kong condemned what they called foreign meddling in the territory's affairs on Thurs, as countries moved to offer Hong Kongers refuge & impose sanctions on China over a new security law.  Chinese foreign  ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said no amount of pressure from external forces could “shake China’s determination and will to safeguard national sovereignty and Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability.”  He urged the US to abide by intl law & stop interfering in Hong Kong's affairs & not sign a sanction bill into law.  His comments came after the House of Representatives yesterday joined the Senate in approving a bill to rebuke China over its crackdown in Hong Kong by imposing sanctions on groups that undermine the city’s autonomy or restrict freedoms promised to its residents.  If the bill becomes law, “China will definitely take strong countermeasures, and all consequences will be borne by the U.S. side,” Zhao said.  Meanwhile, dozens of pro-Beijing activists & lawmakers protested outside the US Consulate in Hong Kong to demand that the US stop meddling.  The group said it gathered 1.6M signatures online in support of its call.  Tam Yiu-Chung, Hong Kong’s sole delegate to the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, said on public broadcaster RTHK today that the new security law imposed by Beijing on Hong Kong was not harsh.  If it were, no one would dare violate the law, he said.  His comments came a day after thousands of protesters marched against the security law, which took effect in Hong Kong late Tues.  The security law outlaws secessionist, subversive & terrorist acts, as well as any collusion with foreign forces in intervening in the city's affairs.  Critics say the law effectively ends the “one country, two systems” framework under which the city was promised a high degree of autonomy when it reverted from British to Chinese rule in 1997.  The maximum punishment for serious offenses under the legislation is life imprisonment, & suspects in certain cases may be sent to stand trial on the mainland if Beijing deems that it has jurisdiction.

China threatens 'strong countermeasures' if US imposes sanctions over Hong Kong law


American Airlines (AAL) told staff it has more than 20K employees it doesn't need for its reduced fall schedule as the carrier & its competitors face weak demand for air travel during the coronavirus pandemic. The carrier & other US airlines are urging employees to take buyouts or early retirement options to reduce head count before turning to involuntary measures like layoffs.  US carriers are prohibited from laying off or cutting the pay rates of their staff thru Sep 30 under the terms of $25B in gov payroll support aimed at softening the impact of the virus on their business.  AAL had 133K employees as of the end of last year.  “We currently anticipate having 20 to 30% — or more than 20,000 — more team members on payroll than we need to operate our schedule this fall,” CEO Doug Parker & Pres Robert Isom said in a staff note.  “To be clear, this doesn’t mean 20,000 of our team members will be furloughed in October, it simply means we still have to work to do to right-size our team for the airline we operate.”  AAL & its competitors have been shoring up liquidity & cutting costs as demand remains a fraction of 2019 levels, even for the peak summer travel season.  At the depths of the demand crisis in Apr, AAL had $11M in cash receipts, which rose to $358M in May & more than $1B in Jun, the execs said.  “While that improvement is encouraging, it’s compared to an average of $4.2 billion each month during the same period in 2019, so we have a ways to go,” they wrote.  The carrier was burning less than $35M a day at the end of Jun, down from $100M a day in Apr, they added.  The stock slid back 31¢.
If you would like to learn more about AAL, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/AAL?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

American Airlines says it’s overstaffed by 20,000 employees for fall schedule

Gold futures settled higher as investors showed concern over the economic impact of the rising numbers of new COVID-19 cases in the US & around the world, despite improving economic data.  A drop in the US unemployment rate & a better-than-expected job growth in Jun only briefly managed to pull prices lower during today's session.  The US added 4.8M jobs in Jun & the unemployment rate fell for the 2nd straight month to 11.1%.  The increase in new jobs easily exceeded the 3.7M forecast.   However, the economy's recuperation from the coronavirus might already be suffering a setback from a renewed surge in COVID-19 cases.  New US coronavirus cases hit a single-day record yesterday of more than 52K while the global total reached 2.64M & death toll of 128K.  In the longer run, though, gold also could receive support from easy monetary policy, after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s most recent monetary-policy meeting revealed an expectation that the economy likely will require support in the form of highly accommodative monetary policy for “some time.”

Gold settles higher with investors casting a wary eye on upbeat U.S. jobs data as cases of COVID-19 continue to rise


Oil futures rose for a 2nd session to mark their highest finish since Mar, buoyed by better-than-expected US job growth in Jun, after data a day earlier showed the biggest weekly domestic crude supply decline since 2019.  The US added 4.8M jobs in Jun & the unemployment rate fell for the 2nd straight month to 11.1%, according to gov data.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Aug rose 83¢ (2.1%) to settle at $40.65 a barrel after gaining 1.4% yesterday.  For the holiday-shortened week, oil saw a weekly gain of 5%, based on the most-active contract close last Fri.  Global benchmark Brent oil for Sep picked up $1.11 (2.6%) at $43.14 a barrel which will hold an abbreviated trading session Fri.  Brent oil traded 5.2% higher this week.  Both WTI & Brent futures marked their highest settlements since Mar 6.  The Energy Information Administration reported yesterday that US crude inventories fell by 7.2M barrels for last week, coming after 3 consecutive weeks of increases.  The forecast called for a crude supply decline of 2.7M barrels.  Energy markets have also been keying in on increases in cases of COVID-19, however, with the US hitting a single-day record of infections of more than 52K, injecting some concern into crude markets about the impact of protocols to limit the spread on the economy & oil uptake.

Oil climbs for a second session, settles at highest since March

Stocks opened with a strong advance, followed by sellling in the PM.  The gut reaction to the employment data was positive, but after thinking about problems relating to higher virus cases & retreating by some states on reopening businesses, investors took profits ahead of the long holiday weekend which begins tomorrow.  Demand for safe haven gold continues strong around 100 below record levels.  Have a good holiday!!

Dow Jones Industrials







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