Monday, September 19, 2011

Greek debt worries weigh on markets

Dow dropped 108 after recovering 150 from its earlier lows, decliners ahead of advancers 5-2 & NAZ was off only 9 (helped by Apple soaring 12 to go over 400).  Bank stocks had another rough day, the chart for the Financial Index looks terrible..

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value169.23One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change   -4.77    (-2.7%)

MLPs are on fire as the index had an unusually good day.  But the REIT index fell 5 to the 222s & junk bond funds were generally a tad lower.  Safe haven investments were in demand as the yield on the 10 year Treasury bond plunged 14 basis points to near the record lows of last week.  There is a lot of talk that there will be an announcement tomorrow that the FED will start a twist operation, selling short term Treasuries & buy long term bonds which will flatten the yield curve.  But it's not clear if this will help the ailing economy.  Gold lost favor even with all the turmoil in intl financial markets.

Alerian MLP Index


Value355.81One-Year Chart for Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:IND)
Change   7.54   (2.2%)


Click below for the latest market update:



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.000%

U.S. 2-year

0.149%

U.S. 10-year

1.933%

CLV11.NYM...Crude Oil Oct 11...85.58 ...Down 2.38  (2.7%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]





The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment index dropped to 14 from 15 in the prior month.  Unemployment above 9%, stagnant incomes & slumping stock prices are hurting confidence which may be dissuading many from purchasing new houses even with mortgage rates at record lows.  Builders are also competing with a surfeit of unsold properties that has dragged down existing-home prices.  The gauge reached a record low of 8 in Jan 2009 & averaged 54 in the 5 years before the recession began in Dec 2007.  The builders index of current single-family home sales eased to 14 in Sep from 15 in the previous 2 months.  A measure of sales expectations for the next 6 months dropped to 17 this month from 19. The gauge of buyer traffic decreased to 11, the lowest this year, from 13 last month.  The confidence survey asks builders to characterize current sales as “good,” “fair” or “poor” and to gauge prospective buyers’ traffic.  The housing picture remains bleak.

Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Declines to Three-Month Low


RIM Q4 $1.82-a-Share Doubts Over Tablet Mount

Photo:   Bloomberg

Research in Motion will probably fall short of full-year forecasts amid intensifying competition from Apple (AAPL) & Google (GOOG).  It forecasted EPS of $5.25-$6, excluding some costs, for the fiscal year ending in Jan. To do that, the company will have to earn at least $3.12 in H2 of the year, including $1.82 in Q4 if it hits the mid-point of its Q3 forecast.  RIMM has never made that much, and, given the new devices coming from AAPL & GOOG partners, it’s unlikely to do so this time.  A spokeswoman for RIMM, referred to comments by executives including Co-CEO Jim Balsillie about strong demand for new products & said the company stands by its forecast.  But the company is showing no progress in the tablet computer market.  It shipped about 200K of its PlayBook tablets in Q2, down from 500K in Q1 & less than half the 490K that analysts had estimated.  RIM said it will unveil new software for the PlayBook next month that will let customers use native e-mail & run Android applications.  Analysts expect EPS of $4.78 for the year, excluding some costs.   RIMM dropped 21¢ & has one of the worst charts for 2011.

RIM Fourth Quarter $1.82-a-Share Doubts Increase With Tablet Targets: Tech

Research in Motion Limited (RIMM)


stock chart


There is a lot riding on Greece getting its next payment of bailout money.  We  should learn more tonight.  Greece needs to deliver on austerity measures & that is very much in doubt.  Then tomorrow Bernanke will try to come up with magical cures for a sputtering economy.  Speaking of austerity, the key word in DC, there are differing views on how to achieve that.  Tax the rich or reduce spending.  So far the stock market has taken this disarray very well.  But not sure how much more it can take.  Investors are flocking to safe haven secuities, that's Treasuries which just had their credit ratings downgraded & Apple  --  an odd combination.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart



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