Thursday, September 8, 2011

Markets are nervous ahead of the president's speech

Dow is up 37, advancers 10% ahead of decliners & NAZ added 14.  Bank stocks were softer today.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 172.20 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change    -1.31     (-0.8%)

The Alerian MLP Index rose 2 to 352 & the REIT  index was up a fraction in the 228s following yesterday's big gain.  Junk bond funds were mixed as were Treasuries although the yield on the 10 year Treasury had dipped below 2% earlier today.  Oil rose before an Energy Dept report that was expected to show a decline in inventories & as Tropical Storm Nate was forecast to strengthen in the Gulf.  Gold is hot again, heading back for 1900.

ALERIAN MLP Index (^AMZ)




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Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.010%

U.S. 2-year

0.192%

U.S. 10-year

2.036%

CLV11.NYM....Crude Oil Oct 11...89.50 .....Up 0.16  (0.%)

GCU11.CMX...Gold Sep 11.....1,851.10 ....Up 36.90  (2.0%)


U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rose to 414,000 Last Week

Photo:   Bloomberg

Weekly applications for unemployment benefits rose 2K to 414K according to the Labor Dept.  The report suggests companies aren't significantly increasing layoffs, despite weak economic growth & also signals that little hiring is taking place.  The 4-week average increased for the 3rd straight week, to 415K.  Applications need to fall below 375K to indicate sustainable job growth, not seen since Feb.  Hurricane Irene didn't affect applications but gov estimated figures for several states because of the Labor Day holiday delayed some data reporting.  The number receiving unemployment benefits fell 30K to 3.7M plus another 3.5M are receiving extended benefits under an emergency program enacted during the recession.  About 7.2M received benefits in the latest week, down 167K from the previous week.  While some may have gotten jobs, many likely used all their benefits.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Rose


European leaders escalated hard-line talk on Greece, with the German finance minister threatening to leave the country at the mercy of financial markets if it doesn’t meet the the financial conditions set for it.  Aid will only be paid “if Greece actually does what it agreed to do,” said  the German finance minister.  If Greece does not meet the conditions, then payments will stop.  These comments add to a chorus of sharper rhetoric toward Greece from its benefactors, as Greece struggles to find new measures to meet its deficit-reduction target, made harder by a deeper-than-expected recession.  The tougher rhetoric represents a growing split between countries like Greece or Italy that are perceived as delinquent, & countries like the Netherlands, Finland or Germany who see themselves as more virtuous.  There are worries that ripple effects from Greece’s departure from the euro zone could be catastrophic for the world economy.  Tensions have risen as the bill for rescuing Greece has increased & as the country has had trouble keeping promises to cut spending & make its economy more efficient.  The court ruling in Germany yesterday allowing for more bailout money, did not solve fundamental problems.  Greece still has huge troubles.

 European Leaders Escalate Tough Talk on Greece- NYTimes


Markets are sloshing around, not doing much until the big speech tonight.  But details have been leaked.  There will some tax benefits for business & a lot more pork in the stimulus (sorry, not supposed to use that word anymore) spending part.  Already, some refer to it as stimulus II & reactions are as expected.  Since Reps control the House, chances are this spending bill will not pass (at least as presented).  Massive spending did not work 2 years ago, but some think a more modest version will all of a sudden do wonders.  A problem with gov spending is that pork is pork, not designed to  generate jobs.  Even if there were good projects, hiring will not begin for months (maybe even years).  But so far, the stock markets have optimistic thoughts.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart



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