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Friday, January 29, 2016
Markets rise led by higher oil prices
Dow gained 175, advancers over decliners almost 6-1 & NAZ advanced 32. The MLP index rose 7+ to 260 & the REIT index added 1+ to 308. Junk bond funds climbed higher & Treasuries also are being up. Oil shot up to the 34s & gold is flattish in the low 1100s.
The US economy expanded at a slower pace in Q4 as
households tempered spending & businesses cut back on capital
investment & adjusted inventories. GDP rose
at a 0.7% annualized rate
after a 2% gain in Q3, according to the Commerce Dept. The advance was in line with the
forecast of 0.8%.
Growth
has downshifted as producers contend with slowing markets abroad, the
negative effect on exports from a stronger $ & plunging oil
prices that have caused drilling firms to retrench. Consumers, enjoying
the fruits of a robust labor market and cheaper fuel bills, will have to
pick up the slack if growth is expected to get back on track. GDP
expanded 2.4% for a 2nd straight year, led by the biggest
gain in consumer spending in a decade. The economy got off to a rocky
start in 2015, partly due to bad winter weather & a West Coast port
workers dispute, before rebounding in Q2. Growth moderated in the ensuing months as companies worked down bloated stockpiles & continued to battle weak exports markets. Household purchases rose at a 2.2% annualized pace
in Q4, compared with a 3% rate in the previous
period. Personal consumption added 1.46 percentage points to growth.
Final
sales to domestic purchasers, or GDP excluding trade & inventories,
climbed at an inflation-adjusted 1.6% annualized rate, compared with a 2.9% pace in the previous 3
months. A pickup in household purchases
will be needed to help the economy fight through the negative effects of
the global slowdown & the rout in commodities that’s diminishing
investment. While businesses are struggling, American households
have plenty of ammunition to assist the economy. Consumer confidence
levels have held in, powered by solid gains in the job market & low
inflation.
Steel
mills in China reported their first annual decline in output since 1981
as local demand contracted, prices sank to a record low & producers
struggled with overcapacity. The China Iron & Steel Association said
crude steel output shrank 2.3% to 803.8M metric tons. In
recent years China has churned out about ½ the world's steel.
Consumer sentiment of the US economy dipped this month, a sign that
global turmoil may be starting to wear on American consumers.
The University of Michigan's final consumer index for Jan fell to 92 from 93.3 recorded earlier this month. The final
Jan result was a decrease from Dec, when the index hit 92.6. Analysts had expected a reading of 93.
Stocks are being big higher to close out a very drab month. After today's rise, the Dow is still down a massive 1.2K in Jan. Economic data keeps coming in glum while oil is well off its recent lows in the mid 20s. Treasuries rose today, indicating this rally may have more to do with traders evening out month end positions.
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