Thursday, November 16, 2017

Markets bounce back after 2 days of selling

Dow jumped up 177, advancers over decliners 4-1 & NAZ gained 72.  The MLP index was up pennies in the 259s & the REIT index was fractionally higher in the 359s.  Junk bond funds rebounded after recent selling & Treasuries dipped lower.  Oil was off pennies in the 55s & gold added 2 to 1278.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Stocks rebounded after European & Asian counterparts climbed, while Treasuries fell as the global risk-off mood eased.  The $ dipped as the £ & the loonie edged higher.  The S&P 500 rose for the first time in 3 days & gauges in Europe & Japan ended their longest losing streaks in a year as investors digested strong earnings.  Commodities halted a slide after China's central bank boosted the supply of cash in its financial system.  Oil held above $55 a barrel.  US 10-year yields advanced to 2.35%.  Investors seem to be regaining their appetite for risk after several days of global declines in stocks & high-yield credit that had many questioning whether the selloff could become a rout.  Volatility measures have been climbing since the record high reached last week in equities gave way to days of decline.  Global growth remains resilient & earnings forecasts strong, despite uncertainty surrounding US tax overhaul, the path for China's economy & the UK's exit from the EU.

U.S. Stocks Rebound as Treasuries, Dollar Decline: 

Markets Wrap


The Rep-controlled Congress was approaching a major test on today of its ability to enact sweeping tax cuts, as lawmakers prepared for their first full-scale vote on tax legislation.  Reps in the House were expected to take up their bill to cut federal tax rates on corps, small businesses & individuals after a meeting with Pres Trump, who wants to sign a tax package into law before year end.  House leaders say they are optimistic about mustering the votes to approve the bill.  "Big vote tomorrow in the House. Tax cuts are getting close!" the Rep pres tweeted.  But Trump's tax reform hopes have begun to encounter resistance in the Senate.  Its version of the tax bill has faced criticism from some Rep lawmakers, including Senator Susan Collins, who helped sink a Rep effort to repeal Obamacare earlier this year.  Senate Reps have made the risky decision to tie their tax plan to a repeal of the mandate for people to get healthcare insurance under ObamaCare, exposing the tax initiative to the same political forces that wrecked their anti-Obamacare push.  Rep Senator Ron Johnson said Trump called him last night after Johnson announced his opposition to the current Senate plan over what he said were unequal rates for small businesses & non-corp enterprises known as "pass-throughs," versus corps.  

Congress poised for a major test on tax legislation


The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week in part as a backlog of applications from Puerto Rico continued to be processed, but the underlying trend pointed to tightening labor market conditions.  Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 10K to a seasonally adjusted 249K, the Labor Dept said.  It was the 2nd straight weekly increase.  The claims backlog in Puerto Rico is being cleared as some of the infrastructure damaged by hurricanes Irma & Maria is restored.  The forecast had called for claims falling to 235K.  Last week marked the 141st straight week that claims remained below the 300K threshold, which is associated with a strong labor market, the longest such stretch since 1970 when the labor market was smaller.  The labor market is near full employment, with the jobless rate at a 17-year low of 4.1%.  The 4-week moving average of initial claims rose 6K to 238K last week.  The low level of claims suggests strong job growth despite hurricane-related disruptions in Sep.  Employment gains could, however, slow as companies struggle to find qualified workers, which economists expect will boost sluggish wage growth.  The claims report also showed the number still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid dropped 44K to 1.86M, the lowest level since 1973.  The 4-week moving average of continuing claims fell 9K to 1.89M, the lowest reading since 1974.

US jobless claims unexpectedly rise; import prices up modestly

Stocks are riding high on hopes for approval by the House on the next step for tax legislation.  Additionally, earnings have been coming in good.  But those earnings reports will mean little if the House fails to pass tax legislation today.  The traders will be watching the vote in DC very closely.


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