Monday, November 13, 2017

Mrkets are steady while traders wait for action on tax reform

Dow ws off pennies (don't see that very often). decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ lost 2.  The MLP index fell 1 to the 266s & the REIT index was even n the 262s.  Junk bond funds hardly budged in price & Treasuries inched higher.  Oil was higher in the 56s & gold added 4 to 1278.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil57.06
+0.32+0.6%

GC=FGold   1,277.20
+3.00+0.2%







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OPEC boosted forecasts of demand for its crude in 2018, signaling that the rebalancing of the global market could gather pace.  OPEC raised estimates for the amount it will need to pump to meet demand next year by 400K barrels a day to 33.4M a day, according to its monthly report.  That's about 670K a day more than OPEC produced in Q3 & global inventories would diminish further in 2018 if the group & its allies continue to keep supplies restrained.  OPEC & Russia have been leading a worldwide coalition of oil producers this year in production cuts aimed at ending a glut that has weighed on prices & battered their economies since 2014.  They'll meet on Nov 30, where they may decide to prolong the measures beyond their scheduled end in Mar.   Output cuts are the “only viable option” for completing the rebalancing of the market, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said today.  Last week he said that no producers opposed continuing the accord & the only question was the duration of the extension.  Production from the 14 members shrank by 151K barrels a day last month to 32.6M a day as a result of lower output from Iraq.  The country's exports have been curtailed because of a dispute between the central gov & the semi-autonomous Kurdish region.  Iraqi production fell 131K barrels a day to 4.38M a day.  Supply curbs by OPEC, Russia & partners are paying off.  Oil inventories in developed nations dropped again in Sep, bringing the total decline this year versus their 5-year average to 183M barrels.  OPEC's main objective is to return stockpiles to the 5-year mean; they remain 154M barrels above this level.  OPEC increased estimates for global demand in 2018 by 300K barrels a day to 98.5M a day.   Demand will expand next year by 1.5M a day, or 1.6%.

OPEC Boosts 2018 Demand Forecast, Signaling Faster Rebalancing

General Electric (GE), a Dow stock, Co will focus on aviation, power & healthcare, radically shrinking the most famous US conglomerate into a smaller company betting on industries where it has strong technology & a large customer base.  In a plan unveiled by new CEO John Flannery, GE cut its div & profit outlook in ½, sending its stock down, as investors worried about how the slimmed down company will generate cash to justify its valuation.  Refocusing of the company will likely mean a sweeping sale of $20B of assets, but GE did not detail exactly which parts of its business it plans to shed.  The div cut, only the 3rd in the company's 125-year history & the first not in a broader financial crisis, is expected to save about $4B in cash annually.  The company forecast adjusted 2018 industrial free cash flow of $6-7B, up from an estimated $3B in 2017.  The move to make GE smaller & nimbler is a turnaround from the previous multi-business approach.  Flannery's changes repudiate much of Jeff Immelt's vision of a "digital industrial" company that builds software to manage & optimize GE's jet engines, power plants, locomotives & other products.  Conglomerates are out of favor as investors prefer to bet on specific industries rather than a mixed portfolio.  GE forecast 2018 adjusted EPS per share of $1-1.07, compared with its earlier estimate of $2.  Analysts were expecting $1.16.  Flannery's strategy is a turning point for the company, which over several decades built itself into a sprawling conglomerate with interests across media, energy, banking, aviation, railroads, marine engines & chemicals.  The stock dropped 97¢.
If you would like to learn more about GE, click on this link
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/GE?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

GE to focus to power, health care and aviation; cuts outlook


Long-haul carrier Emirates purchased 40 American-made Boeing (BA), a Dow stock, 787-10 Dreamliners at the start of the biennial Dubai Air Show, a $15.1B deal certain to please Pres Trump who has touted the plane's sales as a job creator in America.  The deal appeared to surprise its archrival Airbus, whose staff had attended a long-delayed news conference & left the room just moments before the announcement.  Emirates CEO Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum explained how the airline considered the Airbus A350 & decided to pick the 787.  "We were comparing the two apples," he said, but found that the Boeing 787 is "the best option" for Emirates "given its maintenance and so on."  The 787-10 typically lists for $312M.  Delivery will begin in 2022.  BA already has 171 orders for the787-10.  Among those waiting for the aircraft are Abu Dhabi-based Etihad.  The stock  rose 1.03.
If you would like to learn more about BA, click on this link
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/BA?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Boeing snags $15.1B deal with Emirates at Dubai Air Show

Stocks are having a quiet day. The news was mixed between GE & BA.  But all eyes are watching those guys in DC, waiting to find out what will happen (or not) to taxes.  Last week was the market's first down week in 9.  That had to be expected.  This week's performance will show if the sellers have a major following.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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