Monday, November 6, 2017

Markets edge higher with averages reaching new records

Dow went up 21, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ gained 22.  The MLP index was fractionally lower to the 268s & the REIT index added a big 5+ to the 357s.   Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were slightly higher.  Oil rose to 56 & gold rose 4 to 1273.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil55.89
+0.25+0.5%

GC=F   Gold1,271.90
+2.70+0.2%







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Stocks fluctuated & bonds advanced, while € & $slipped as Pres Trump tried to tackle trade on his Asia tour.  A crackdown on corruption in Saudi Arabia pushed oil higher.  US stocks opened slightly lower.  The Stoxx Europe 600 Index swung between gains & losses, even as a European purchasing managers index indicated strong momentum at the start of Q4.  Basic resources shares outperformed as the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose to the highest since Mar & the S&P 500 Steel Index rose 1.2%.  News out of Asia was a dominant theme for many assets, with inflation comments from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, remarks on excessive leverage from his Chinese counterpart Zhou Xiaochuan & the grievances on the balance of trade from the US pres, who goes on to South Korea & China this week.  The ¥ declined before erasing the loss, and stocks in the region were mixed.   News on central bankers also will be closely watched. Federal Reserve Bank of NY Pres William Dudley plans to retire in the middle of next year.  His early departure would mean changes at the Fed'’s top 3 positions within a relatively short period.  Trump announced last week that Fed Governor Jerome Powell will be nominated to replace Janet Yellen when her term expires in Feb & Vice Chair Stanley Fischer retired in last month.

Stocks Mixed as Trump Talks Asia Trade; Bonds Rise: Markets Wrap


Saudi Arabia has thrown investors a curve ball.  King Salman's move to arrest a string of high-profile nationals, from ministers to princes, has left some encouraged by the authorities' willingness to take on corruption.  Yet they're also worried about who might be next.  In less than 24 hours, dozens of high profile Saudis were arrested, the gov intercepted a ballistic missile Yemeni Houthi fired at Riyadh's intl airport, & Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri unexpectedly resigned in a televised speech from the kingdom.  They’re signs of the changing times in Saudi Arabia.  The charges against those detained aren't public, creating even more uncertainty in a market that’s already considered opaque.  The kingdom’s attorney general said that “during the investigation, all parties retain full legal privileges relating to their personal and private property, including funds.”  The gov is giving the entire nation a makeover, from allowing women to drive to the construction of a new business hub on the Red Sea.  The overhaul was kick-started by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has bypassed senior royals to become the kingdom's predominant leader, after a plunge in crude prices strained Saudi Arabia's finances & forced the energy-rich nation to confront the realities of life after oil.  Since then, the kingdom has allowed foreigners to trade Saudi stocks directly & shifted the bourse's settlement cycle to T+2, among other changes.  But total foreign ownership has lingered below 5% of the value of shares on the exchange.  The Tadawul All Share Index has declined 3.1% this year, compared with MSCI Emerging Markets Index’s 31% advance.


VP Mike Pence said there will be changes to the tax plans of both houses of Congress before the final legislation is signed into law by PresTrump, to ensure it fits the commander-in-chief's vision for tax reform.  “There will be changes between the two and changes in the course of the legislative process,” he said.  “But we think the House bill is a great start. We look forward to the Senate bringing forward its tax cut bill.”  On Thurs, House Reps released their tax plan which calls for repealing the estate tax & cutting the corp tax rate to 20% from 35%, a fundamental component of Trump's campaign since day one and something the administration wants to see happen without delay.  “I think it has to happen immediately,” Pence said.  “And we’re going to drive and drive hard… we’ve got to lower taxes on American businesses; we’ve got to do it quickly. So businesses… will be able to invest those dollars in wages, in hiring more employees and in the kind of growth it’ll create even more jobs.”   Part of the House GOP's tax cut proposal also includes shrinking the number of tax brackets for individuals from 7 to 4—12%, 25%, 35% & 39.6%— though it does include a 45.6% marginal rate on some high-income earners.  Under the proposed legislation, all Americans, regardless of what they earn, would pay the lowest rate on their first $45K of taxable income.  Reps want to claw back some of the benefits gained by wealthier Americans & thus would add $6 in taxes on every $100 of income earned on single Americans making more than $1M & couples who earn more than $1.2M.  Once the benefit is phased out, the rate returns to 39.6%.  “I support the president’s commitment to keep the top marginal rate at 39.6% and we’re going to continue to drive toward that,” Pence said.  Trump's focus on improving the American economy isn't stopping at home.  Trump, on Sat, arrived in Japan to kick-off a 13-day trip where he will visit 4 other countries—South Korea, China, the Philippines & Vietnam—where he will likely discuss North Korea's nuclear threat, in addition to trade with foreign nations.  “Make no mistake about it: President Trump’s going to be talking American jobs and he’s going to be talking about not just free trade, but fair trade, and better deals that’ll be a better deal for the American worker,” Pence, who is a chairman of the US-Japan Economic Dialogue, said, adding that Trump would likely discuss the accessibility the American automobile & agriculture industries have in the Japanese marketplace.

Pence: There will be changes to the tax plan


There s a lot going on in the intl scene & stocks are taking it all in stride.  Getting a new tax plan passed is more important & the US & global economies are doing fairly well.  Traders have the Dow 24K in sight & hope to make it happen shortly.  Meanwhile gold (the main alternative to stocks) is not declining.

Dow Jones Industrials

 





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