Monday, November 20, 2017

Markets edge higher as they begin a holiday week

Dow went up 84, advnacers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ added 7.  The MLP index sold off 3+ to the 256s & the REIT index lost 1+ to the 358s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were little changed.  Oil slid lower in the 55s  & gold dropped 11 to 1285. 

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil56.11
-0.44-0.9%

GC=FGold   1,286.30
-10.20-0.8%







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The $ gained & US stocks rose after 2 down weeks as Congress takes a holiday break from tax talks & the closely watched Alabama senate election nears. The S&P 500 opened slightly higher at the start of a truncated Thanksgiving week as investors gauge whether there are sufficient drivers to continue the march to historic highs.  Strong earnings & solid global growth are balanced against lofty valuations in some markets, as well as the negative signal from the US yield curve.  European investors are watching political news as the week begins.  A month of exploratory coalition talks in Germany ended in a dramatic collapse on a dispute over migration policy.  The upshot is that Europe's dominant country remains hamstrung on the global stage, potentially affecting everything from policy toward the EU, Turkey & Russia to gov spending.  Nevertheless, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced & Germany’s DAX rebounded from a 7-week low, with investors judging the failure of coalition talks won't threaten the region's economy.  Sterling strengthened after reports the UK may make concessions to smooth Brexit negotiations.  West Texas intermediate crude retreated after surging the most in 2 weeks in the previous trading session, though it’s mostly held above $56 a barrel.  Gold declined & Treasuries edged lower.  The £ & gilts traders will focus on a potential downgrade to the UK growth outlook this week & gov efforts toward agreeing a Brexit divorce bill.  Sterling was boosted today by reports that the UK was preparing to make an enhanced divorce bill offer to the EU ahead of crucial talks starting next month.

Stocks Rebound in Short Week for U.S. Exchanges: Markets Wrap


Germany's economy is probably strong enough to shrug off the country's dive into political uncertainty for now.  The collapse of coalition talks has cast a shadow over Chancellor Angela Merkel's ability to provide stable leadership for Europe's most-powerful nation, just as the region seeks stronger integration.  Yet the turmoil in the capital of Berlin is doing little to worry economists watching the country as a whole benefit from record-low joblessness & booming output.  Germany's unemployment rate was 5.6% last month, the lowest since reunification a qtr of a century ago.  Economic growth of 0.8% last qtr beat estimates & was led by exports & investment, supporting solid domestic consumption & showing that the expansion is resilient. The Ifo institute's gauge of business confidence is at a record high.

German Economy Seen Coasting Even as Coalition Talks Crumble


Oil held near $56 a barrel after surging the most in almost 2 weeks as Saudi Arabia's energy minister said OPEC should announce an extension to supply cuts when it meets at the end of the month.  Futures slipped 0.7% after rising 2.6% on Fri.  Oil inventories are unlikely to drain to average levels by the time the OPEC agreement expires at the end of Mar, Saudi Arabia's Khalid Al-Falih said.  The US drilling-rig count was unchanged at 738 at the end of last week.  Oil dipped slightly last week on a weaker demand outlook while Russa cast doubts on the timing of a decision to extend supply cuts led by OPEC.  West Texas Intermediate for Dec, which expires today, slipped 39¢ to $56.16 a barrel.  Brent for Jan settlement lost 86¢ to $61.86 a barrel, after dropping 1.3% last week.  The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $5.61 to Jan WTI.  Saudi Arabia has had extensive consultations with Russia, according to Al-Falih, who said he’s convinced that the country will be “fully on board” when a resolution is made.  OPEC will ensure that its exit strategy from the current accord will be a gradual adjustment that prevents the return of any glut, he added.


This is traditionally a sleepy week for the stock market, with many traders away on a long holiday.  Or course, these days nothing is routine especially with the unpredictable goings on in DC.  Tax reform remains center stage & nobody knows how that will turn out.  However the bulls remain optimistic & are keeping the averages near record highs.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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