Thursday, December 28, 2017

Higher markets with the Dow reaching yet another record

Dow advanced 63 (closing at the highs), advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ rose 10.  The MLP index added 1+ to the 275s & the REIT index was up 1+ to the 355s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries drifted lower.  Oil was higher in the 59s (more below) & gold went up 5 to 1297, 10 week high.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Your home may not have made the same gains as stocks, but it still was a robust year for the US housing market.  The value of the entire housing stock increased by 6.5%,or $2T, in 2017, according to a report from Zillow.  All homes in the country are now worth a cumulative $31.8T.  The gain in home values was the fastest since 2013, when real estate was in the early stages of its recovery from the recession.  Yet it still trails the surge in other assets, with the S&P 500 Index up about 19%.  Los Angeles is the most valuable US housing market at $2.7T, according to Zillow's estimate of owner-occupied & rental homes, with NY 2nd, at $2.6T.  The 10 most valuable metropolitan areas are worth $11.3T combined, 36% of the total value of the US housing stock.  A home might be a worse investment next year, as the new federal tax law reduces key benefits to ownership.  That includes a lower limit on the amount of debt eligible for the mortgage-interest deduction & a cap on state & local tax deductions.  Those changes will land hardest on homeowners in coastal markets with high property values -- & taxes -- & could lead to price declines, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Homes in U.S. Gained $2 Trillion in Value This Year, Zillow Says

On the heels of Pres Trump's first major legislative victory, the administration is turning an eye toward the New Year, with the infrastructure revamp topping the to-do list.  White House officials said that the pres will likely roll out his infrastructure principles next month, leading up to the State of the Union address.  Trump, House Speaker Paul Ryan & Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell are set to discuss the GOP's overarching infrastructure themes at Camp David on Jan 6 & 7.  The White House views infrastructure as three separate pieces, which include streamlining bureaucracy, funding & collapsing the agency review process.  The projected spending figures remain unchanged: a $1T package consisting of combined public-private spending.  The federal gov is looking to directly spend around $200B.  While an infrastructure revamp was widely viewed as a bipartisan proposal at the outset Trump's tenure, experts believe the outlook may be murkier after the passage of a tax reform bill that could pile on to the deficit.  His promised $1T infrastructure overhaul was supposed to be detailed within his first 100 days in office.  Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao said in Sep that states & localities will compete for gov funds, with the most innovative projects winning more federal $s.  The infrastructure revamp is expected to address everything from bridges, roads & airports to energy, broadband & even Veterans Affairs hospitals.  National Economic Director Gary Cohn said that having broadband in rural areas is a priority.  He also said that the gov needs to reimagine infrastructure based on the future, adding that the US can't keep building cities in 2050.  In addition to infrastructure, the pres has said he would like to address both health care & welfare reform in 2018.

Trump's infrastructure overhaul to be detailed next month


Oil prices traded mixed, lifted by strong data from top importer China amid thin trading activity ahead of the New Year weekend.  Heading into 2018, traders said market conditions were relatively tight due to ongoing supply cuts led by the Middle East-dominated OPEC, as well as top producer Russia.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $59.64 a barrel, unchanged from their last settlement.  WTI broke through $60 a barrel earlier this week, the first time since Jun 2015.  Brent crude futures were at $66.45 a barrel, up a penny & it broke thru $67 earlier this week, the first time since May 2015.  US crude stocks fell last week as refineries hiked output, while gasoline & distillate inventories rose, the Energy Information Administration said.  Crude inventories fell by 4.6M barrels as refineries hiked output in the week to Dec 22, compared with expectations for a decrease of 4.0M barrels.  Gasoline stocks rose 591K barrels, compared with expectations for a 1.3M-barrel gain.  Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel & heating oil, rose 1.1M barrels, versus expectations for a 584K-barrel drop, the EIA data showed.

Oil little changed after EIA data shows bigger-than-expected draw on U.S. crude reserves

On this sleepy day Dow advanced to a record high, although other popular averages were off their records set earlier in Dec.  The Dow need less than 170 to top 25K tomorrow, the last day of trading this year.  The bulls not on vacation may test that level.  With all the bullish sentiment for stocks, gold continues to be in demand by naysayers.

Dow Jones Industrials















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