Thursday, December 28, 2017

Markets inch higher on reduced holiday volume

Dow gained 51, advancers over decliners about 5-4 & NAZ was off pennies.  The MLP index crawled up chump change to the 274s & the REIT index was fractionally lower to 354.  Junk bond funds were flattish & Treasuries drifted lower.  Oil was little changed in the 59s & gold added 3 to 1294.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil59.55
-0.09-0.2%

GC=FGold   1,295.80
+4.40+0.4%







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The US merchandise trade deficit reached a more than 2-year high in Nov, while inventories at wholesalers & retailers increased, according to preliminary figures released by the Commerce Dept.  Goods-trade gap grew to $69.7B (est $67.9B), the widest since Mar 2015, from $68.1B the prior month.  Exports of goods rose 3% to $133.7B on increased shipments of automobiles & consumer & capital goods.  Imports increased 2.7% to a record $203.4B on more consumer goods & industrial supplies such as oil.  Demand for the goods remained elevated as US consumers, who are upbeat about the economy, continue to spend.  At the same time, companies are boosting investment in equipment, helping explain demand for imported capital goods.  Imports reached a fresh all-time high last month & will probably remain robust as a report yesterday showed record-high buying intentions for household goods from refrigerators to carpets & washers.  Meantime, stronger global growth is boosting demand for US-made goods.  Exports climbed to the highest level in nearly 3 years.  While a wider trade deficit will probably weigh on economic growth in Q4, today's data also showed a pickup in inventories that will help boost GDP.   Exports & imports of goods accounted for about ¾ of America's total trade in 2016 (the US typically runs a deficit in merchandise trade & a surplus in services).

U.S. Merchandise Trade Gap Widens to Largest Since 2015

The number of people filing for unemployment benefits held steady last week, in part reflecting estimated data for 13 states & still consistent with a strong job market, Labor Dept figures showed.  Jobless claims were unchanged at 245K from prior week (est 240K).  Continuing claims rose 7K to 1.94M in the latest week, the highest since mid-Nov.  The 4-week average of initial claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, increased to 238K from the prior week's 236K.  Claims are still hovering near the lowest level in more than 4 decades, underscoring employers' reluctance to reduce staff given the shortage of qualified workers.  Jobless claims are typically volatile this time of the year around the holiday season.  Some of the largest states (NY & Texas) showed estimated data for last week.  For more than 2 years, applications for jobless benefits have been below the 300K tally that's considered a sign of a healthy labor market.

Jobless Claims Held Steady, Signaling Solid U.S. Labor Market

Oil traded near the highest level in more than 2 years after a pipeline explosion curbed production in OPEC member Libya.  West Texas Intermediate futures were little changed, having climbed above $60 a barrel on Tues for the first time since 2015.  The pipeline, which carries crude to Libya's biggest export terminal, is said to need about a week for repairs.  The Forties pipeline in the UK, one of the world's most important, is nearing a return to full service following an unexpected shutdown earlier this month.  Oil is heading for a 2nd yearly advance as OPEC & its partners including Russia extended supply curbs thru the end of 2018 with the aim of draining a global glut.  The disruption in Libya has pushed the nation's output below the cap of about 1M barrels a day it agreed with the group last month, offsetting the return of flows thru the UK North Sea link.  West Texas Intermediate for Feb delivery was at $59.65 a barrel, up a penny after the contract dropped 33¢ to $59.64 yesterday.


Stocks are having a sleepy day.  There is not much exciting news to digest.  However gold is rising again, approaching its highest level in 4 years.  It's being purchased by investors nervous about the overbought stock market.

Dow Jones Industrials









 

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