Tuesday, December 5, 2017

Markets rise as tech stocks rebound

Dow rose 31, decliners modestly ahead of advnacers & NAZ recovered 53.  The MLP index slid back to the 264s & the REIT index was off a fraction to the 355s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated again & Treasuries were little changed.  Oil declined to the 57s (more below) & gold sank 14 to 1263.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil57.53
-0.83-1.4%

GC=FGold1,268.30
-14.00-1.1%







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Technology shares rebounded on speculation the recent selloff went too far, while the $ rose & industrial metals dropped.  NAZ rallied as chipmakers & software companies paced gains.  The S&P 500 fluctuated as investors weighed the latest developments in efforts to overhaul taxes in the US, including the surprise inclusion of the alternative minimum rate for businesses in the Senate measure.  The Stoxx Europe 600 declined as a slump in industrial metals hit mining shares.  Sterling weakened as Brexit negotiators wrestled with the Irish border question & retail sales & services data disappointed.  House & Senate lawmakers are poised to begin working on compromise tax-overhaul legislation, a key step in their drive to send a bill with tax cuts for corporations & individuals to Pres Trump by the end of the year.  A global stock rally that has led indexes to record highs had stalled this month as investors locked in profits in tech stocks, the year's best performers & switched to firms seen benefiting most from a potential reduction in the corporate tax rate such as banks.  The € declined even as indicators showed economic momentum accelerated to its fastest pace in over 6 years in Nov.  Most European gov bonds rose, with Greek bonds outperforming after progress on the country's bailout.  Elsewhere, oil hovered below $58 a barrel before US gov data forecast to show crude stockpiles decreased for a 3rd week.  The US trade deficit widened in Oct to a 9-month high on record imports that reflect steady domestic demand.  Earlier, indices fluctuated in Tokyo, while shares in Hong Kong & Shanghai fell even as a report showed China's service sector expanded more firmly last month than in Oct.

U.S. Tech Shares Rebound as Metals Fall With Pound: Markets Wrap


Growth in US service industries cooled by more than forecast in Nov after the fastest expansion since 2005, as orders eased & supply chains normalized following 2 hurricanes, an Institute for Supply Management survey showed.  Non-manufacturing index fell to 57.4 (es 59) from 60.1 (readings above 50 indicate growth).  Index of supplier deliveries fell to 54 from Oct's 58 reading that matched the highest since 2005.  Measure of business activity eased to 61.4 from 62.2 & the gauge of new orders dropped to 58.7 from 62.8.  16 industries reported growth in Nov, led by retail & wholesale.  The Nov retreat shows services are settling back to a more sustainable pace, though a weaker one than expected for the month.  Even with the slowdown, which follows a hurricane-related surge in activity, the index is above the 57 average for this year thru Oct.  The four-point decline in the index of supplier deliveries was the largest since the end of 2015, showing service providers are making progress after hurricanes disrupted schedules & delayed work in the previous 2 months.  Now, delivery times are improving as the supply chain gets back to normal.  The report compares with a smaller drop in the ISM’s latest factory survey, which showed manufacturing expanded at a healthy pace in Nov amid a burst of production & rising orders.  “They’re still confident that the year will finish out strong,” Anthony Nieves, chairman of the ISM non-manufacturing survey, said.  This pace of growth will continue through the balance of the year and “should carry over somewhat into January.”

Growth in U.S. Service Industries Cools From a 12-Year High


Oil slipped towards $62 a barrel as investors took profits in the wake of OPEC & other producers' pact to extend output cuts, although an expected drop in US crude inventories lent support.  Crude also slipped on concerns that the OPEC-led producer Nov 30 decision to prolong their supply-cutting deal thru 2018 could bolster US output, which climbed to nearly 9.5M barrels per day in Sep.  Brent crude, the global benchmark, was down 14¢ at $62.31 a barrel, declining for a 2nd session.  US crude, West Texas Intermediate, was down 28¢ at $57.19.  OPEC, Russia & other non-OPEC producers last week extended the deal to cut output by 1.8M barrels per day (bpd) until the end of 2018.  OPEC and allies are trying to get rid of excess oil in storage.   They have made progress in this task & the latest US inventory reports are likely to show a 3rd straight weekly drop in crude stocks.  Analysts expect the reports to show crude stocks fell by 3.5M barrels in the latest week.  OPEC has shown strong compliance with the supply cut pledge & in Nov output fell 300K bpd to its lowest since May.  However, rising US oil production presents a headwind for OPEC's efforts & data last week showed US crude output rose to nearly 9.5M bpd in Sep, approaching the high of 9.63M bpd seen in 2015.

Oil slips towards $62 in post-OPEC profit taking, US stocks in view

There is not much for stocks to do while those guys in DC try to figure out how to blend the 2 plans for new taxes.  But there is a lot riding on coming up with a new tax plan & funding gov spending for the rest of the fiscal year.  Economic continues to be reasonably good.  Dow is close to record highs, making the bulls happy.

Dow Jones Industrials

 







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