Dow went up 28, advancers over decliners almost 5-4 & NAZ added 3. The MLP index fell 1+ to the 273s & the REIT index gained 1+ to the 354s. Junk bond funds were a little higher & Treasuries finally gained in price, bringing lower yields. Oil slid back in the 59s (more below) & gold advanced another 4 to 1292 (3 week high).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Stocks were little changed, while Treasuries rose amid trading thinned by a holiday-shortened week. The $ weakened against most peers. The S&P 500 was virtually unchanged after a 2-day slump as data showed American consumers remain upbeat about the economy. Trading was 44% below the 30-day average today. Stocks in Europe ended slightly higher following a mixed session in Asia. 10-year Treasury yields headed for a 4th day of declines, while the $ traded near month lows. Meanwhile, the € & £ gained, while bonds in Europe were mixed. West Texas crude retreated after breaching $60 a barrel for the first time since Jun 2015 yesterday.
A measure of contract signings for the purchase of previously owned US homes unexpectedly increased in Nov after surging a month earlier, according to data released by the National Association of Realtors. The index rose 0.2% M/M (est 0.4% drop) after 3.5% increase that was the largest since Feb. The gauge increased 0.6% Y/Y on unadjusted basis after rising 1.2%. The increase in contract signings indicates previously owned home sales, tabulated when a deal closes, will stay steady in coming months after climbing in Nov to an almost 11-year high. Robust employment & cheap borrowing costs are underpinning the housing recovery. Nonetheless, lean inventory remains a hurdle for the market as it’s keeping home prices rising faster than income growth. “The housing market is closing the year on a stronger note than earlier this summer, backed by solid job creation and an economy that has kicked into a higher gear,” the NAR said. “However, new buyers coming into the market are finding out quickly that their options are limited and competition is robust.”
US consumer confidence declined in Dec from a 17-year high as Americans became less upbeat about the outlook for the economy & job prospects, according to the Conference Board. The Confidence index fell to a 3-month low of 122.1 (est 128) from a revised 128.6 in Nov. Present conditions measure rose to 156.6, the highest since mid-2001, from 154.9. Consumer expectations gauge dropped to 99.1, the lowest since Nov 2016, from 111. Even with the latest cooling off, Americans remain upbeat -- this month was the strongest Dec since 2000. While expectations about business conditions & job availability declined, the share of respondents who expected their incomes to rise in the next 6 months increased to the highest since Mar. The data corroborate other measures showing people remain sanguine about the economy & their own situation. While the Univ of Mich consumer sentiment index fell in Dec, it is also still elevated by historical standards. “Despite the decline in confidence, consumers’ expectations remain at historically strong levels, suggesting economic growth will continue well into 2018,” the Conference Board said.
U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Fell in December
The United Parcel Service (UPS) projects that record-breaking ecommerce shopping volume this holiday season could lead to a surge in returns for the shipping company. UPS said more than 1M returns occurred each day in Dec leading up to Christmas & the company expects that pace to continue thru the remainder of the month. On Jan 3, what UPS expects to be “National Returns Day,” the package delivery company expects consumers to ship up to 1.4M parcels back to retailers, which is up 8% from one year ago & represents a 5th consecutive annual record. Between Thanksgiving & New Year’s Eve, the company expects it will have delivered 750M packages, up 40M from 2016. This holiday shopping season has been cheerful for retailers, as a surging stock market & increasing consumer confidence fuel spending. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, retail sales rose at their strongest pace since 2011, up 4.9% between Thanksgiving & Christmas Eve. Meanwhile, ecommerce sales made up a significant share of those gains, at 18.1%. UPS stock rose 78¢.
If you would like to learn more about UPS, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/UPS?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Oil prices dipped after hitting a near 2½ year high in the previous session as a rally fueled by supply outages in Libya & the North Sea ran out of momentum. Brent crude futures dropped to $66.38 a barrel down 0.9% (64¢) after breaking thru $67 for the first time since May 2015 the previous day. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $59.64 a barrel, down 34¢ from their last settlement. WTI broke through $60 a barrel for the first time since Jun 2015 in the previous session. Yesterday, Libya lost about 90K barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil supplies after a pipeline feeding Es Sider port was blown up. Repair of the pipeline could take about one week but will not have a major impact on exports, the head of Libyan state oil firm NOC said. The Libyan outage added to the supply disruptions of recent weeks, which also included the closure of Britain's largest Forties pipeline. Yesterday, Forties was pumping at ½ its normal capacity & its operator was pledging to resume full flows in early Jan. The Forties & Libyan outages, which together amount to around 500K bpd, are relatively small in a global context of both production & demand approaching 100M bpd. Oil markets have tightened significantly over the past year thanks to voluntary supply restraint led by the Middle East-dominated OPEC & non-OPEC Russia. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that global oil markets gradually came into balance by 2016 & started to show a slight supply deficit this year following rampant oversupply in 2015. The data implied a shortfall of 180K bpd for Q1-2018. A major factor countering OPEC & Russia efforts to prop up prices is US oil production, which has soared more than 16% since mid-2016 & is fast approaching 10M bpd.
Oil falls from 2015 highs as rally runs out of steam
Optimism in the stock market has the S&P 500 the most overbought in 22 years. And gold has had another run up this month. But the bulls are still firmly in command. Positive sentiment should continue next year, even with dysfunctional DC unable to get a lot done (aside from tax reform). The Dow has time to go over 25K by Fri, but the chances are diminished with little time left & slow volume. However, the popular stock averages are very close to their records which were set recently. By any definition, this has been a stellar year for stocks.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 59.63 | -0.34 | -0.6% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,293.20 | +5.70 | +0.4% |
Stocks were little changed, while Treasuries rose amid trading thinned by a holiday-shortened week. The $ weakened against most peers. The S&P 500 was virtually unchanged after a 2-day slump as data showed American consumers remain upbeat about the economy. Trading was 44% below the 30-day average today. Stocks in Europe ended slightly higher following a mixed session in Asia. 10-year Treasury yields headed for a 4th day of declines, while the $ traded near month lows. Meanwhile, the € & £ gained, while bonds in Europe were mixed. West Texas crude retreated after breaching $60 a barrel for the first time since Jun 2015 yesterday.
U.S. Stocks Mixed, Treasuries Gain as Dollar Falls: Markets Wrap
A measure of contract signings for the purchase of previously owned US homes unexpectedly increased in Nov after surging a month earlier, according to data released by the National Association of Realtors. The index rose 0.2% M/M (est 0.4% drop) after 3.5% increase that was the largest since Feb. The gauge increased 0.6% Y/Y on unadjusted basis after rising 1.2%. The increase in contract signings indicates previously owned home sales, tabulated when a deal closes, will stay steady in coming months after climbing in Nov to an almost 11-year high. Robust employment & cheap borrowing costs are underpinning the housing recovery. Nonetheless, lean inventory remains a hurdle for the market as it’s keeping home prices rising faster than income growth. “The housing market is closing the year on a stronger note than earlier this summer, backed by solid job creation and an economy that has kicked into a higher gear,” the NAR said. “However, new buyers coming into the market are finding out quickly that their options are limited and competition is robust.”
US consumer confidence declined in Dec from a 17-year high as Americans became less upbeat about the outlook for the economy & job prospects, according to the Conference Board. The Confidence index fell to a 3-month low of 122.1 (est 128) from a revised 128.6 in Nov. Present conditions measure rose to 156.6, the highest since mid-2001, from 154.9. Consumer expectations gauge dropped to 99.1, the lowest since Nov 2016, from 111. Even with the latest cooling off, Americans remain upbeat -- this month was the strongest Dec since 2000. While expectations about business conditions & job availability declined, the share of respondents who expected their incomes to rise in the next 6 months increased to the highest since Mar. The data corroborate other measures showing people remain sanguine about the economy & their own situation. While the Univ of Mich consumer sentiment index fell in Dec, it is also still elevated by historical standards. “Despite the decline in confidence, consumers’ expectations remain at historically strong levels, suggesting economic growth will continue well into 2018,” the Conference Board said.
U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Fell in December
The United Parcel Service (UPS) projects that record-breaking ecommerce shopping volume this holiday season could lead to a surge in returns for the shipping company. UPS said more than 1M returns occurred each day in Dec leading up to Christmas & the company expects that pace to continue thru the remainder of the month. On Jan 3, what UPS expects to be “National Returns Day,” the package delivery company expects consumers to ship up to 1.4M parcels back to retailers, which is up 8% from one year ago & represents a 5th consecutive annual record. Between Thanksgiving & New Year’s Eve, the company expects it will have delivered 750M packages, up 40M from 2016. This holiday shopping season has been cheerful for retailers, as a surging stock market & increasing consumer confidence fuel spending. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, retail sales rose at their strongest pace since 2011, up 4.9% between Thanksgiving & Christmas Eve. Meanwhile, ecommerce sales made up a significant share of those gains, at 18.1%. UPS stock rose 78¢.
If you would like to learn more about UPS, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/UPS?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
UPS expects returns to surge to new record this season
Oil prices dipped after hitting a near 2½ year high in the previous session as a rally fueled by supply outages in Libya & the North Sea ran out of momentum. Brent crude futures dropped to $66.38 a barrel down 0.9% (64¢) after breaking thru $67 for the first time since May 2015 the previous day. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $59.64 a barrel, down 34¢ from their last settlement. WTI broke through $60 a barrel for the first time since Jun 2015 in the previous session. Yesterday, Libya lost about 90K barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil supplies after a pipeline feeding Es Sider port was blown up. Repair of the pipeline could take about one week but will not have a major impact on exports, the head of Libyan state oil firm NOC said. The Libyan outage added to the supply disruptions of recent weeks, which also included the closure of Britain's largest Forties pipeline. Yesterday, Forties was pumping at ½ its normal capacity & its operator was pledging to resume full flows in early Jan. The Forties & Libyan outages, which together amount to around 500K bpd, are relatively small in a global context of both production & demand approaching 100M bpd. Oil markets have tightened significantly over the past year thanks to voluntary supply restraint led by the Middle East-dominated OPEC & non-OPEC Russia. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that global oil markets gradually came into balance by 2016 & started to show a slight supply deficit this year following rampant oversupply in 2015. The data implied a shortfall of 180K bpd for Q1-2018. A major factor countering OPEC & Russia efforts to prop up prices is US oil production, which has soared more than 16% since mid-2016 & is fast approaching 10M bpd.
Oil falls from 2015 highs as rally runs out of steam
Optimism in the stock market has the S&P 500 the most overbought in 22 years. And gold has had another run up this month. But the bulls are still firmly in command. Positive sentiment should continue next year, even with dysfunctional DC unable to get a lot done (aside from tax reform). The Dow has time to go over 25K by Fri, but the chances are diminished with little time left & slow volume. However, the popular stock averages are very close to their records which were set recently. By any definition, this has been a stellar year for stocks.
Dow Jones Industrials
No comments:
Post a Comment