Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Markets fluctuate as Congress is ready to finally pass tax bill

Dow slid back l, decliners slightly ahead of advancers & NAZ lost 19.  The MLP index dropped 2+ to the 269s & the REIT index was off pennies in the 354s after yesterday's big selloff.  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries saw more selling.  Oil inched up pennies in the 57s & gold added 3 to 1267.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil57.72
+0.16+0.3%

GC=FGold  1,266.60
+2.40+0.2%








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Stocks were mixed while Treasury yields climbed to 9-month highs as the Rep tax overhaul moved closer to passage.  The S&P 500 Index up its early gains, pulled down in part by consumer stocks including tobacco companies.  Core European bond yields followed Treasury rates higher, with ECB asset purchases for the year ending tomorrow.  The Senate's approval of the tax-cut legislation in a 51-48 party line vote brings Pres Trump to the brink of his first major legislative victory.  The bill now goes to the House for a final vote & an event is scheduled for the White House next Wed.  The bill itself will be signed at a later date.  Telecom & tech shares led the decline in the the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, with Spanish equities underperforming before tomorrow's Catalan poll.  Miners gained as the Bloomberg Commodity Index advanced for a 6th day.  The € climbed against the $, as did the British £. The ¥ declined.  Oil gained as industry data was said to show a larger-than-expected drop in US crude stockpiles.  Gold edged higher & industrial metals rose.  Earlier, Japan's Topix index closed at its highest level since 1991, while stocks in Hong Kong & China declined.

Bonds Tumble, Stocks Mixed as Tax Bill Progresses: Markets Wrap


Sales of previously owned US homes rose in Nov to an almost 11-year high, indicating demand picked up momentum heading into the end of the year, according to a National Association of Realtors (NAR) report.  Contract closings rose 5.6% M/M to a 5.81M annual rate (est 5.53M) after 5.5M.  The median sales price increased 5.8% Y/Y to $248K.  Inventory of available properties fell 9.7% Y/Y to 1.67M, the 2nd-lowest in records to 1999, the NAR said.  The results show broad strength, with particular firmness in the upper-end market where inventory conditions are “markedly better,” the group said.  54% of homes sold in Nov were on the market for less than a month.  A sustained housing recovery is helping boost economic growth this qtr.  At the same time, it's still hard for many first-time & younger buyers to enter the market given the shortage of available houses for sale & property price appreciation that's outpacing wage growth.  Higher mortgage rates next year could further cut into affordability.  Even so, the housing recovery remains on track as demand is being underpinned by a steady job market & appreciating stock portfolios for some Americans.  “Home prices continue to march higher at a very solid pace,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said.  The data are “showing exceptionally tight inventory conditions.”  The overall impact from the tax reform plan “could be mildly negative,” however that could be cushioned by good market conditions that include short-term fiscal stimulus from the legislation, he said.  The net impact could be slower price gains of up to 3% in 2018, he added.

U.S. Sales of Existing Homes Climb to an Almost 11-Year High


Jubilant Reps pushed on early AM to the verge of the most sweeping rewrite of the nation's tax laws in more than 3 decades, a deeply unpopular bill they insist Americans will learn to love when they see their paychecks in the new year.  Pres Trump cheered the lawmakers on, eager to claim his first major legislative victory.  After midnight, the Senate narrowly passed the legislation on a party-line 51-48 vote.  Upon passage, Reps cheered, with Treasury Sec Steve Mnuchin among them.  Majority Leader Mitch McConnell insisted Americans would respond positively to the tax bill.  "If we can't sell this to the American people, we ought to go into another line of work," he said.  The vote came hours after the GOP rammed the bill thru the House, 227-203.  But it wasn't the final word in Congress because of one last hiccup.  3 provisions in the bill, including its title, violated Senate rules, forcing the Senate to vote to strip them out.  So the massive bill was hauled back across the Capitol for the House to vote again today & Reps will have a chance to celebrate again.  Hours earlier, House Speaker Paul Ryan, who has worked years toward the goal of revamping the tax code, gleefully pounded the gavel on the House vote.  GOP House members roared & applauded as they passed the $1.5T package that will touch every American taxpayer & every corner of the US economy, providing steep tax cuts for businesses & the wealthy, & more modest help for middle- & low-income families.

Senate moves tax cut legislation to brink of final passage


Stocks are marking time, waiting for Congress to make the tax bill official.  The bulls are very happy after the stock market has had one of its best years in history.  Optimism is running high & reaching 25K shortly for the Dow is still being hoped for.

Dow Jones Industrials

stock chart  








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