Monday, December 11, 2017

Markets mark time after explosion near Times Square

Dow lost 1, advancers over declinhers 4-3 & NAZ added 8.  The MLP index rebounded 2+ to the 266s & the REIT index did little in the 356s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries rose slightly.  Oil climbed higher in the 57s & gold was flat.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)



CL=FCrude Oil57.46
+0.10+0.2%



GC=FGold    1,245.10
-0.10-0.0%







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Stocks were slightly higher in early trading after an explosion rocked midtown Manhattan.  The $ fell & Treasuries rose.  The S&P 500 & NAZ gained, while the Dow was little changed, as markets digested news of the blast at the Port Authority bus terminal on 42nd St.  Gold slid & oil gained.  In Europe, shares struggled for direction ahead of week that will be heavily influenced by central bank decisions.  Most European bonds rose & the € climbed.  Sterling slipped as some of the promises made to clinch a breakthrough Brexit deal last week started to fray.  In Asia, the Nikkei 225 reclaimed a 26-year high.  Central banks take center stage this week, with the Fed expected to raise rates at its meeting on Wed & the ECB set to reveal details of plans to taper asset purchases on Thurs.  The Bank of England  & Swiss National Bank also meet.  With the world economy heading into its strongest period since 2011, economists are telling investors to brace for the biggest tightening of monetary policy in more than a decade.  Oil declined to around $57 a barrel as US drillers expanded the crude rig count to a 3-month high.

U.S. Stocks Rise Despite NYC Explosion; Gold Falls: Markets Wrap


US job openings unexpectedly cooled in Oct from an all-time high a month earlier, still consistent with a solid job market, Labor Dept data showed.  The number of positions waiting to be filled fell by 181K to 6M (est 6.14M) from upwardly revised 6.18M in Sep:  Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported.  Hiring rose to 5.55M from 5.32M; hiring rate improved to 3.8% from 3.6%.  3.18M Americans quit their jobs, unch. from Sep & the quits rate held at 2.2%.  The figures are in sync with a Labor Dept report last week that showed payrolls increased in Nov following a solid gain in Oct as the job market moved past hurricane-related distortions to make further progress.  Industries including manufacturing, retail trade & business services showed fewer openings than in Sep, while job availability in construction, real estate & leisure & hospitality increased, the JOLTS report showed.  Employers say they're facing a shortage of qualified Americans as the US approaches full employment.  A stable quits rate, which is considered a measure of workers' willingness to voluntarily leave because they're confident of finding better employment, shows faster gains in worker pay will take time.  Layoffs dropped to 1.63M in Oct, from 1.75M the prior month. There were 1.1 unemployed people vying for every opening in Oct, compared with 1.9 people when the recession began at the end of 2007.  In the 12 months thru Oct, the economy created a net 2.1M jobs, representing 64.3M hires & 62.2M separations.

U.S. Job Openings Cooled in October After Climbing to a Record


US companies expect their investment & hiring to grow at a slower pace in 2018, & only a small share say proposed tax legislation is driving their capital-spending decisions, according to a private survey.  The Institute for Supply Management semi-annual forecast showed factory purchasing managers see capital spending rising 2.7% in 2018, slower than the 8.7% gain reported for this year.  Their counterparts at service providers project investment growth of 3.8% , also weaker than this year's 7% advance.  Less than ½ of respondents in both manufacturing & services said they'd raised wages to attract workers.  The survey, conducted in Nov, suggests that the economy will get less of a boost from business investment next year after strong capital spending helped push the pace of growth above 3% in the past 2 qtrs.  The findings also raise questions about any impact from the proposed reduction in corp taxes moving thru Congress, even as the Trump administration & Reps say it will result in a sustained increase in the rate of expansion.  Respondents to a special question in the semiannual poll showed companies were giving less importance to prospects for tax reform or an overhaul of regulations when it came to capital spending.  When asked what was behind their investment plans for the next 12 months, about 2/3 in each group of manufacturers & service providers cited the general business outlook, while less than 6% attributed it to business tax reform.  Economic growth is expected to continue, according to the semi-annual survey.  Purchasing managers in manufacturing anticipate sales will rise 5.1% next year, & service providers see revenue gains of 6%, in line with other recent reports indicating business sentiment remains elevated.  Companies will continue to boost headcounts next year, though at a slower pace.  Manufacturing will see employment growth of 1.2% in 2018, following a 2.3% gain reported for this year since Dec 2016.  Service businesses project a 1.5% increase in hiring after a 2.4% gain in 2017.  Both groups predict labor & benefits costs will increase next year, with a 2.1% advance for manufacturing & 2.6 % for services.

Companies in U.S. Plan to Slow Their Investment, Hiring in 2018


An explosion near Times Square is unsettling for the stock market, but the bulls are taking it in stride.  Economic data keeps coming in fairly good with encouraging plans by execs for next year.  But those guys in DC are the prime mover for stocks (other than Janet this week) & that world is not uncertain.  The tax plan is far from a done deal & wrangling continues in the Senate.  At least the stock averages are holding at essentially record levels.

Dow Jones Industrials

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