Thursday, December 7, 2017

Markets rose on hope to avoid a government shutdown tomorrow

Dow gained 70, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ went up 36.  The MLP index jumped up 4+ to the 263s & the REIT index added 1+ to the 355s.  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries retreated.  Oil rose in the PM (more below) & oil tumbled 19 to 1246.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Top Reps left no doubt that the House will approve legislation preventing a weekend partial gov shutdown, erasing any suspense over an impending budget clash that would put a calamitous exclamation point at the end of the capital's tumultuous year.  "I feel good where we are," House Speaker Paul Ryan told reporters hours before his chamber planned to vote on legislation keeping federal agencies afloat thru Dec 22.  Their money runs out at midnight tomorrow without approval of fresh funding, & Senate approval was also expected.  The leader of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, whose members had been threatening to withhold needed support, also made clear that the bill would be approved.  Rep Mark Meadows, said House Majority Whip Steve Scalise told him Res had the votes needed to approve the short-term spending measure.  Freedom Caucus members will likely give leaders whatever support they need to pass the legislation, Meadows said.

GOP leaves little doubt they'll prevent government shutdown


US mortgage rates rose this week as the economy showed signs of strength, which makes it more likely that the Federal Reserve will raise its short-term rate next week.  The rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.94% from 3.9% last week, mortgage giant Freddie Mac said.  The 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage, popular among homeowners seeking to refinance, also increased, rising to 3.36% from 3.3%.  The 5-year adjustable mortgage rate rose for the 3rd straight week to 3.35% from 3.32% last week.  Shorter-term rates are rising more quickly than longer-term debt, & the gap between the 30-year mortgage & 5-year has narrowed since the summer.  As a result, more homebuyers are choosing the longer-term fixed rate, Freddie Mac said.   Even with the increase, the 30-year rate is down from the beginning of the year, when it stood at 4.13%.  Any rate below 5% is low by historic standards.  The number of people seeking unemployment benefits is near a 4-decade low & surveys of manufacturers & service firms point to healthy growth.  Federal Reserve policymakers meet next week & are widely expected to lift their short-term rate for the 3rd time this year.

US mortgage rates rise, though remain historically low


Consumer borrowing surged in Oct by the largest amount in 11 months, according to the Federal Reserve.  Total consumer credit increased $20.5B in Oct to a record seasonally adjusted $3.8T, posting an annual growth rate of 6.5%.  Expectations for a $17B increase.  This is the 2nd straight strong monthly gain in consumer borrowing. Credit rose a revised $19.2B in Sep, down only slightly from the prior estimate of a $20.8B.  Credit-card borrowing powered the increase.  Revolving credit, which is mostly made up of credit-card loans, accelerated to an annual rate of 9.9%, faster than the 7.3% gain in Sep.  Non-revolving credit, which covers loans for education and cars, rose at an annual rate of 5.3%, slightly slower than the 5.7% rate in Sep.  The hefty above-trend gain in consumer credit in Oct was likely aided by the post-hurricane surge in auto sales.  The data excludes loans secured by real estate like home mortgages.

Consumer credit accelerated in October by largest amount in 11 months


A day after fears over mounting US fuel inventories sent future prices spiraling downward, they clawed back a portion of their descent, gaining 1.3%.  The increase resulted as traders with outstanding wagers on a market drop closed out positions.  Oil had a 2nd yearly gain after OPEC & partners including Russia agreed to extend supply cuts thru all of next year.  West Texas Intermediate for Jan delivery rose 73¢ to settle at $56.69 a barrel.  Total volume traded was about 25% below the 100-day average.  US gasoline inventories rose 6.78M barrels last week, the biggest increase since Jan, while crude stockpiles slipped by 5.61M , the EIA reported.  Oil production expanded to 9.71M  barrels a day, the highest level in weekly data compiled by the EIA since 1983.


This was another nothing kind of day for stocks.  But there was a lot going on in DC.  As expected, Al Franken will resign from the Senate.  Not big at the macro economic level, but politics are running even higher in DC following this move.  At the same time, those guys have to pass important legislation.  It looks like the gov will stay open for another couple of weeks, then they will need to work on another extension for funding.  Tech stocks have been choppy recently.  Today buyers were bargain hunting in those stocks, giving the overall stock market a lift.

Dow Jones Industrials

 








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