Dow rose 55 (but off the highs), advancers over decliners almost 3-2 & NAZ crawled up 4. The MLP index was up fractionally in the 271s & the REIT index fell 1+ to the 349s. Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries finally found buyers, giving them a modest gain. Oil climbed in the 58s (more below) & gold added 1 to 1271.
AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2562841609203734)
AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
A jump in consumer spending in the final stretch of Dec should build on a strong start to the US holiday season & help the embattled retail industry beat sales forecasts, industry research groups said. The spending boost in Dec comes ahead of Super Saturday (the last Sat before Christmas) which often sets the annual record for retail sales & is one of the busiest shopping days of the year along with Black Friday. In recent years, shopping in the final weeks has determined the success of the season. "Across the board, the whole season is up pretty significantly this year versus last year," said Glenn Fodor, senior VP & head of information & analytics at payment processor First Data. First Data, which collected data from point-of-sale systems of 1.3M physical & online retailers, said strong demand for categories like electronics, appliances, building materials, furniture & home furnishings boosted overall retail spending. During Oct 28-Dec 15 retail spending grew 5.4% from last year's 2%. During the 5-day period between Thanksgiving-Cyber Monday this year it grew 8%, up from 5.8% last year, according to First Data. Earlier this month, the Commerce Dept reported better-than-expected US retail sales for Nov & revised its Oct figures upward, pointing to a jump in household spending, which accounts for about 70% of the economy. Low unemployment levels, a strong job market, stock market gains & rising home values have contributed to the growing optimism & spending. In its mid-season holiday spending report, Mastercard's SpendingPulse report said 2017 is projected to show the strongest holiday season sales growth rate since 2010, with the overall potential to surpass 5% year-over-year growth. "This is a consumer saying I have got a job, gotten a raise, even expecting a bonus ... the economy is really humming," said Sarah Quinlan, senior VP & group head, Market Insights. Mastercard tracks spending by combining sales activity in MasterCard's payments network with estimates of cash & other payment forms. Quinlan also said e-commerce saw the largest share of holiday retail sales ever this year at more than 11%. Online shopping rose sharply this year, with Cyber Monday becoming the largest online sales day in history in the US at $6.6B. The jump in spending prompted a retail consultant to raise his holiday sales forecast. Craig Johnson, pres of consultancy Customer Growth Partners, said that he now estimates sales growth of 5.6% in Nov & Dec, up from his initial estimate of 4.3%. Johnson said he expects this year to be the strongest since before the recession began in 2007 & sales momentum is likely to remain strong until the New Year. Despite the optimism, some analysts expressed caution over deepening discounts in Dec.
US holiday shopping season surging towards a strong finish
The Senate's top Dem says he's committed to Senate passage of a temporary spending bill to prevent a gov shutdown this weekend, though he's not yet backing a new House measure. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer also said he'll block any attempt to pass a separate disaster aid measure, saying changes are needed. Schumer wants bargaining leverage for a host of issues being punted into next year, including the budget & immigration. He said it's unclear what funding measures the GOP-controlled House will send to the Senate & whether or not they would be acceptable to him. Senate Dems hold leverage in the year-end shutdown showdown, which is a factor in GOP leaders' moves to kick so much unfinished business into the new year.
The Latest: Top Senate Dem wants passage of spending bill
A key economic indicator met expectations in Nov, forecasting continued economic growth into 2018. Leading indicators rose by 0.4%, meeting the estimates. The rising index suggests "solid economic growth will continue into the first half of 2018," said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles & growth research at The Conference Board. "In recent months, unemployment insurance claims have returned to pre-hurricane levels. In addition, improving financial indicators, new orders in manufacturing & historically high consumer sentiment have propelled the US LEI even higher," Ozyildirim added. In Oct, the index rose 1.2%, doubling expectations & reversing a slight decline from the previous month, according to the Conference Board. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) is a closely followed indicator used to forecast global economic trends & take a pulse on the US economy. The Conference Board determines a composite value based on 10 key metrics, including manufacturers' new orders, stock prices & average weekly unemployment claims to create the composite value.
Leading economic indicators rise 0.4 percent, meet expectations
Oil prices were little changed, erasing earlier losses after the operator of Britain's Forties pipeline in the North Sea said it was expected to restart in early Jan after repairs over Christmas. Forties is the largest of the 5 North Sea crudes that underpin Brent, a benchmark for oil trading in Europe, the Middle East, Africa & Asia. Brent futures were up 20¢ (0.3%) at $64.76, while West Texas Intermediate crude was up 24¢ (0.4%) at $58.33 per barrel. Despite the small increases, both benchmarks were trading at their highest since Dec 12 after rising most days since the start of the Forties shutdown. "Based on current estimates the company expects to bring the pipeline progressively back to normal rates early in the new year," Ineos, the privately held Swiss chemical company that operates the Forties pipe, said. The system, which carries around 450K barrels per day (bpd) of crude to Britain, along with 1/3 of the UK's total offshore natural gas output, was closed after a routine inspection revealed a crack in an onshore section. Oil prices were supported in part by falling crude inventories in the US but capped by output that is fast approaching 10M bpd, a level only surpassed by Saudi Arabia & Russia. Both crudes gained about 1% during their previous sessions, lifted by official data showing a 6.5M-barrel fall in US crude inventories in the latest week to 436M barrels, the lowest since Oct 2015.
Oil little changed despite planned restart of UK North Sea pipe
The stock market feels good after recent selling. The chaos in DC (normal for those guys) over gov funding should be resolved one way or the other. Meanwhile economic data looks very good highlighted by expectations for strong holiday sales. Additionally, the housing market is strong. Reports of companies already planning to increase rewards for employees are being well received by traders. Even with modest selling in the PM, the Dow is only 200+ away from the magical 25K level.
Dow Jones Industrials
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