Friday, December 22, 2017

Markets little changed going into the holiday

Dow gave back 28, advancers barely ahead of decliners & NAZ lost 5.  The MLP index added 1+ to the 273s & the REIT index rose 2+ to the 351s.  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries held steady.  Oil was flat in the 58s (more below) & gold went up 8 to 1279.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Orders placed with US factories for business equipment fell in Nov after a sharp upward revision to the previous month, consistent with an upswing in corp investment that's helping propel the economy.  Bookings for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft eased 0.1% last month, according to the Commerce Dept.  The decline followed a 0.8% increase in Oct that was more than double the previously reported 0.3% advance.  The Nov forecast called for a 0.5% gain.  Orders for all durable goods, meant to last at least 3 years, increased 1.3% as bookings for commercial & military aircraft rebounded.  Core capital goods orders advanced at an 18% annualized rate in the 3 months thru Nov, while those shipments moved ahead at a 14.9% pace.  The data indicate spending on equipment will provide more fuel for economic growth after a Q3 contribution that was the most in 2 years.  Increased investment may be sustained in 2018 as lower corp tax rates, from a bill awaiting Pres Trump's signature, give businesses the wherewithal to boost capital spending at the same time the global economy shows signs of firming.  Shipments of non-military capital goods excluding aircraft, used to calculate GDP, increased 0.3% in Nov after rising a revised 1.3% the month before, according to the Commerce Dept (Oct was previously reported as a 1.1%  gain).  Total demand last month was propelled by increased bookings for commercial aircraft, which climbed 14.5% in Nov after declining 15.8% a month earlier.  Boeing, a Dow stock, received 159 orders for planes last month, up from 64 the previous month, & deliveries for the month totaled 70 aircraft, up from 56.  Industry data don't always correlate with the gov statistics on a month-to-month basis.  Excluding transportation equipment demand, which is often volatile from month to month, bookings for durable goods decreased 0.1%  in Nov, the first drop since May.


Pres Trump signed the massive $1.5T tax overhaul into law, cementing the biggest legislative victory of his first year in office & also approved a short-term spending bill that averts a possible gov shutdown.  These pieces of legislation represent his most significant accomplishment with Congress since taking office in Jan, as well as a sign of what awaits when he returns after the Christmas holiday.  The tax package, the largest such overhaul since the 1980s, slashes the corp rate from 35% to 21% & temporarily reduces the tax burden for most individuals as well.  The spending bill extends federal funding thru Jan 19, largely at current levels, but does nothing to resolve broader disputes over immigration, healthcare & military spending.  Reps also are divided over whether to follow up their sweeping overhaul of the US tax code with a dramatic restructuring of federal benefit programs.  House Speaker Paul Ryan has said he would like to revamp welfare & health programs but Senate Rep Leader Mitch McConnell said  that he was not interested in cutting those programs without Dem support.

Trump signs tax, government spending bills into law


Oil futures trimmed early losses, with the US benchmark trading near unchanged as data showed the number of US oil rigs remained steady this week.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Feb delivery was off a penny at at $58.35 a barrel, leaving it on track for a 1.8% weekly rise.  February Brent crude, the global benchmark, slipped 29¢ (0.4%) to $64.61 a barrel, setting it up for a 2.2% weekly advance.  Baker Hughes said the number of US oil rigs was unchanged at 747 this week.  Traders are keeping an eye on the count amid concerns shale producers could move to ramp up production next year in response to higher prices.  The US benchmark is up more than 8% YTD, while Brent has advanced 13.7%.  While analysts expect a quiet week following Christmas, many said they would be looking to see whether the Forties Pipeline System in the North Sea resumes full operations at the start of the New Year.  The pipeline was shut down last week after operator Ineos discovered a hairline crack in a pipe, stopping the flow of 450K barrels of North Sea oil a day.  That tightening of supply had buoyed prices over the past week.  But Ineos said yesterday it expects to bring pipeline flows “progressively back to normal rates” early in the New Year.

Oil steady as U.S. rig count remains stable


There was low volume today.  Little was done with many traders away.  The Dow is just needs 250, a mere 1%, to go over 25K & hopes to do that next week.  Enjoy you holiday weekend!!

Dow Jones Industrials









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