Dow went up 18, advancers over decliner about 3-2 & NAZ lost 26. The MLP index climbed 1 to the 274s & the REIT index gained 1 to the 352s. Junk bond funds rose & Treasuries inched higher. Oil advanced in the 58s (more below) & gold added 6 to 1285.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Technology shares slipped on speculation Apple (AAPL - a Dow & NAZ stock) phone sales will fall short of estimates, with trading volumes thin on the day after Christmas. Oil & gold rose. NAZ fell while the S&P 500 edged lower, with AAPL & some of its suppliers among the worst performers. Emerging-market currencies strengthened an index of commodities headed to its longest winning streak in more than a decade. The Treasury plans to sell $45B of 3-month bills, a fresh gauge of investor confidence before the US is expected to breach its debt ceiling in late Mar. The major European stock exchanges were shut, along with Hong Kong & Australia. Markets overall were quiet as the stellar year for risk assets crawls to its end, with the possible exception of the cryptocurrency roller coaster. Next year could bring more drama, with tensions simmering between the US & Russia, Italy's parliament set to be dissolved for a risky European election & a big decisions on the US debt ceiling kicked down the road. West Texas oil held above $58 a barrel after US explorers refrained from adding rigs for a 2nd week. Japanese equity benchmarks dropped from the highest levels since the early 1990s, helping to pull the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down. The £ weakened & the Brazilian real & South African rand were among gainers.
Fueled by high consumer confidence & a robust job market, US retail sales in the holiday period rose at their best pace since 2011, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks both online & in-store spending. Sales, excluding automobiles, rose 4.9% from Nov 1 thru Christmas Eve, compared with a 3.7% gain in the same period last year, according to the Mastercard unit, which tracks all forms of payment. E-commerce continued to drive the gains, rising 18.1%. "It started with a bang in the week leading up to Black Friday," said Sarah Quinlan, a senior VP of marketing insights at Mastercard. She added that retailers benefited this year from Christmas Day falling on a Mon, giving shoppers a full weekend to scoop up last-minute purchases. Dec 23 ranked next to Black Friday in terms of spending, according to Mastercard. "Overall, this year was a big win for retail," Quinlan said. That newfound buoyancy is a relief to retailers -- from department-store giants to mall favorites -- that struggled thru a difficult year of store closures, declining foot traffic and bankruptcies by chains. Investors, who have abandoned many retail stocks even as the broader stock market surged, have started to return. Unlike in past years, when spending was driven by high-income shoppers, this holiday season a broader swath of the population opened their wallets, encouraged by rising wages & low unemployment, analysts and economists said. "Fewer people are living paycheck to paycheck," said Chris Christopher, exec director of economic-research firm IHS Markit. "There is a lot more spending from the lower- and middle-income groups, while the upper-income groups are splurging." Consumer credit-card debt reached its highest level since the end of 2008, jumping 11% from a year earlier to $757B in Q3 of 2017, according to Experian PLC, a credit-reporting agency. This time around, the surging debt levels are due to economic confidence, said Alan Ikemura, a senior product manager with Experian's analytics unit. Consumer confidence rose to a 17-year-high in Nov, while unemployment fell to a 17-year low in Oct. Personal consumption expenditures, a measure of household spending on everything from airfares to washing machines, increased 4.5% in Nov from a year earlier, an escalation from year-over-year gains of 4% during the summer. In a cautionary sign, however, credit-card delinquency rates jumped 16% in Q3, indicating consumers may be spending above their means & could slow their purchasing next year.
The stock market should quiet in the holiday shortened week. Volume is traditionally low with many traders away. Retail sales are coming in robust, an encouraging sign for the health of the economy. The Dow still would like to top 25K by year-end, needing only about 250.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 58.67 | +0.20 | +0.3% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,285.90 | +7.10 | +0.6% |
Technology shares slipped on speculation Apple (AAPL - a Dow & NAZ stock) phone sales will fall short of estimates, with trading volumes thin on the day after Christmas. Oil & gold rose. NAZ fell while the S&P 500 edged lower, with AAPL & some of its suppliers among the worst performers. Emerging-market currencies strengthened an index of commodities headed to its longest winning streak in more than a decade. The Treasury plans to sell $45B of 3-month bills, a fresh gauge of investor confidence before the US is expected to breach its debt ceiling in late Mar. The major European stock exchanges were shut, along with Hong Kong & Australia. Markets overall were quiet as the stellar year for risk assets crawls to its end, with the possible exception of the cryptocurrency roller coaster. Next year could bring more drama, with tensions simmering between the US & Russia, Italy's parliament set to be dissolved for a risky European election & a big decisions on the US debt ceiling kicked down the road. West Texas oil held above $58 a barrel after US explorers refrained from adding rigs for a 2nd week. Japanese equity benchmarks dropped from the highest levels since the early 1990s, helping to pull the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down. The £ weakened & the Brazilian real & South African rand were among gainers.
Fueled by high consumer confidence & a robust job market, US retail sales in the holiday period rose at their best pace since 2011, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks both online & in-store spending. Sales, excluding automobiles, rose 4.9% from Nov 1 thru Christmas Eve, compared with a 3.7% gain in the same period last year, according to the Mastercard unit, which tracks all forms of payment. E-commerce continued to drive the gains, rising 18.1%. "It started with a bang in the week leading up to Black Friday," said Sarah Quinlan, a senior VP of marketing insights at Mastercard. She added that retailers benefited this year from Christmas Day falling on a Mon, giving shoppers a full weekend to scoop up last-minute purchases. Dec 23 ranked next to Black Friday in terms of spending, according to Mastercard. "Overall, this year was a big win for retail," Quinlan said. That newfound buoyancy is a relief to retailers -- from department-store giants to mall favorites -- that struggled thru a difficult year of store closures, declining foot traffic and bankruptcies by chains. Investors, who have abandoned many retail stocks even as the broader stock market surged, have started to return. Unlike in past years, when spending was driven by high-income shoppers, this holiday season a broader swath of the population opened their wallets, encouraged by rising wages & low unemployment, analysts and economists said. "Fewer people are living paycheck to paycheck," said Chris Christopher, exec director of economic-research firm IHS Markit. "There is a lot more spending from the lower- and middle-income groups, while the upper-income groups are splurging." Consumer credit-card debt reached its highest level since the end of 2008, jumping 11% from a year earlier to $757B in Q3 of 2017, according to Experian PLC, a credit-reporting agency. This time around, the surging debt levels are due to economic confidence, said Alan Ikemura, a senior product manager with Experian's analytics unit. Consumer confidence rose to a 17-year-high in Nov, while unemployment fell to a 17-year low in Oct. Personal consumption expenditures, a measure of household spending on everything from airfares to washing machines, increased 4.5% in Nov from a year earlier, an escalation from year-over-year gains of 4% during the summer. In a cautionary sign, however, credit-card delinquency rates jumped 16% in Q3, indicating consumers may be spending above their means & could slow their purchasing next year.
Retailers feel shoppers' Christmas cheer
The stock market should quiet in the holiday shortened week. Volume is traditionally low with many traders away. Retail sales are coming in robust, an encouraging sign for the health of the economy. The Dow still would like to top 25K by year-end, needing only about 250.
Dow Jones Industrials
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