Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Markets fluctuate on mixed economic data

Dow gained 20, decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ gave back 20.  The MLP index added 1 to the 303s & the REIT index lost 3 to the 324s.  Junk bond funds were a little lower & Treasuries fell again, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury near 2.4%.  Oil climbed a little higher in the 48s & gold sank below the important resistance level of 1200.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures,J

Gold Futures,Dec-2016

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Consumer confidence rose more than previously reported to a 6-month high in Nov, showing Americans became more optimistic about their finances & the economy after Trump won the presidential election.  The Univ of Mich said its final index of sentiment rose to 93.8 from 87.2 in Oct, after a preliminary reading of 91.6 that reflected pre-election views.  The split was stark between respondents in the month's survey before & after the Nov 8 vote, with sentiment rising 8.2 points in the post-election group from the pre-election cohort.  The lift suggests that Americans were heartened on the whole by Trump's victory, with broad gains in confidence across incomes, ages & regions.  At the same time, the increase may reflect a “honeymoon” period that could fade unless actual economic conditions improve, said Richard Curtin, director of the survey.  “President-elect Trump appears to appreciate the importance of his first hundred days; the key issue is whether his economic policies will resonate with the nation’s consumers,” he said.  “The honeymoon may be shorter than usual given the intensity of the opposition, although President-elect Trump has proven himself to be a skilled communicator.”  The current conditions index rose to a 4-month high of 107.3 from a one-year low of 103.2 in the prior month.  The gauge of expectations 6 months from now gained 8.4 points to 85.2, the biggest jump in 4 years, from a 2-year low of 76.8 in Oct.

Stocks are meandering on low volume & indecisive economic data.  Dow rose to a new record high & is up about 1K since Trump's victory.  Emotions are driving this market & nobody knows where they will take stocks.

Dow Jones Industrials

stock chart


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