Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Market marks time while retail stocks are sold

Dow went up 5, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ lost 7.  The MLP index  fell 5+ to the 272s & the REIT index slid back 1+ to the 349s (but off the lows).  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries were sold.  Oil was even & gold dropped 12.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]





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US auto debt swelled by $23B in Q2 to a record high as drivers continued to finance expensive SUVs with costly new technology & safety features.  Auto loans now make up 9.3% of Americans' household debt loads, the category's highest share in Federal Reserve Bank of NY data going back to 2003.

Auto Loans’ Share of U.S. Household Debt Climbs to Record


American households increased their borrowing over the past year at the fastest pace of the US economic expansion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of NY.  Consumer debt levels rose 4.5% in the year thru Jun to $12.8T, data from the NY Fed.  Mortgage borrowings were up 3.9%, while credit-card balances increased 7.5%.  Both marked the fastest rate of increase since 2008. Auto & student-loan debt levels also rose.  The percentage of balances that became 30 or more days delinquent in Q2 ticked up for each of the 4 debt categories.  Credit-card debt saw the largest percentage increase in transitions to delinquency, to 6.2%, from 5.1% a year earlier.  “While relatively low, credit-card delinquency flows climbed notably over the past year,” Andrew Haughwout, a senior VP at the NY Fed, said.  “This is occurring within the context of loosening lending standards, as borrowers with lower credit scores recover their ability to access credit cards,” he added.  “The current state of credit card delinquency flows can be an early indicator of future trends and we will closely monitor the degree to which this uptick is predictive of further consumer distress.”

U.S. Households Borrow at Fastest Pace of Expansion, Fed Says


Home Depot (HD), a Dow stock, reported higher-than-expected quarterly profit & comparable sales & also raised its full-year sales & profit forecast.  Americans have been investing more in their homes as property prices are on the rise in a subdued US housing market, which is facing a supply crunch.  The company now expects full-year sales to grow 5.3%, comparable sales to rise 5.5% & EPS of $7.29 for the year ending in Jan.  It had previously forecast sales to grow 4.6%, comparable sales to rise 4.6% & EPS of $7.15.  Sales at stores open for more than a year rose 6.3%, above the 4.9% growth expected.  Comparable sales at US store increased 6.6%.  EPS rose to $2.25 in Q2, from $1.97 a year earlier.  Net sales rose 6.2% to $28.1B.  Analysts had expected EPS of $2.22  on revenue of $27.8B.  But the stock sank 4.09 (3%).  If you would like to learn more about HD, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/HD?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Home Depot tops profit, comp sales estimates; raises forecast


Coach (COH)'s fiscal Q4 profit nearly doubled on lower costs, topping expectations.  The luxury handbag maker said EPS rose to 53¢ & EPS, adjusted for non-recurring gains, came to 50¢.  The results exceeded expectations.  The estimate was for EPS of 49¢.  Revenue fell 2% to $1.13B & missed estimates of $1.15B.  The prior-year period included an extra week of sales.  Selling & general expenses fell 16% to $561.5M, offsetting lackluster sales.  Last year, the company started the process of closing 25% of its weaker locations within department stores.  It also said it would plan fewer promotions & sales.  For the year, the company reported EPS of $2.09 per share & revenue was $4.49B.  Looking ahead, the company expects revenue of $5.8-5.9B in fiscal 2018.  EPS is expected to be $2.35-2.40.  Analysts forecast full-year revenue of $5.03B & EPS of $2.40.  The stock tumbled 7.28 (15%).  If you would like to learn more about COH, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/COH?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Coach 4Q profit surges on lower costs, topping forecasts


It looks like North Korea has calmed down so traders can get back to watching stocks & earnings.  Retail stocks had a tough day (HD alone cost the Dow many points).  REITs which invest in retail properties (malls & shopping strips) were sold.  However the Dow is back at 22K, remaining close to its record levels.  Even though Trump is giving the gossip people plenty to talk about, investors are not complaining.

Dow Jones Industrials










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