Friday, June 17, 2016

Markets drift lower, weighed down by the uncertain Brexit vote

Dow dropped 58. advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 & NAZ went down 44.  The MLP index rose 1+ to the 308s & the REIT index lost a fraction in the 346s.  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries drifted lower.  Oil climbed higher & gold was flattish (more on both below).

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CLN16.NYM...Crude Oil Jul 16....47.72 Up ...1.51 (3.3%)

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Campaigning over whether the UK should quit the EU was suspended for a 2nd day after the murder of Labour lawmaker Jo Cox, an advocate for voting to stay in next week's referendum.  Events planned by the two main campaign groups were canceled, while publication of opinion polls & an IMF report were delayed until the weekend as tributes were paid to Cox.  Prime Minister David Cameron, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne & Bank of England Governor Mark Carney all canceled or shortened appearances today.  “We know how important it is to establish boundaries in one’s choice of language and argument as well as the choice in a sometimes disparaging way of arguing -- and to engage with respect those who think and believe and love differently,” Merkel told reporters in Berlin.  “Politics can’t solve everything, but it can contribute to ensuring in what manner we engage in disagreement -- and this terrible murder reminds us all always to take this to heart.”  While campaigning was suspended, Cameron’s office said he’ll make a joint appearance with Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn in Cox's electoral district.  Despite supporting the same outcome in the referendum, the 2 leaders have not shared a platform during the campaign.  Cameron’s Conservatives also said they won't contest Cox’s seat in the special election to replace her.

Oil prices rose for the first time in a week as the $ fell & investors in global markets cautiously bought some riskier assets as anxiety eased about Britain's possible exit from the EU.  But crude was still on track for a weekly loss after daily declines Mon-Thurs.  The front-month in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose $1.18 (2.5%) to $47.39.  Yesterday, oil lost about 4% each as investors fretted that the global economy could be thrown into turmoil if the UK votes next week to ditch its EU membership.  On Fri, Britain mourned the death of Jo Cox, a day after the vocal advocate for Britain remaining in the union was murdered.  Her death threw next week's referendum on EU membership into limbo.  The $ fell about a ¼%, retreating from its 2-week high on Thurs that had weighed on demand for greenback-denominated oil from the holders of the € & other currencies.  With UK's future in the EU still unknown until a vote next Thurs, oil could come under pressure again.  2 global oil majors were putting up small refineries for auction as they looked to trim lower-margin assets amid rising crude prices.

Oil up as Brexit Fears Ease, Still Down for Week

Gold in London rose, supported by a softer $, had a 3rd week of gains following a cautious note from the Fed on interest rates & uncertainty ahead of Britain's vote on EU membership.  The metal, often seen as an insurance in times of financial & economic uncertainty, peaked at $1315 on Thurs, its strongest since Aug 2014.  Gold then slid 1% as financial markets reacted to the suspension of campaigning for the Jun 23 British referendum after a lawmaker was shot dead.  Gold is highly sensitive to rising interest rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal.  Sterling-denominated gold rose to a 3-year high on Thurs, while the metal priced in €s reached its highest since Apr 2013, due to the weakening of both currencies against the dollar ahead of the referendum.  The Bank of England escalated its warnings about fallout from the vote, saying it could harm the global economy & that sterling looked increasingly likely to weaken further if "Leave" wins.

Gold rises on weak dollar, set for third week of gains

Uncertainty over the Brexit vote is adding to worries for stock traders.  Analysis means little when nobody knows how that will turn out.  Dow is down 100 in Jun as the bulls have not been able to win fans with so many major economies stumbling.

Dow Jones Industrials









 

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